SunSirs: China MTBE Market Volatility Consolidation

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from December 8th to 12th, MTBE prices first fell and then rose from 4,947 RMB/ton to 4,967 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 0.40% during the period, a month on month decrease of 0.40%, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.31%. The domestic MTBE market first fell and then rose, due to supply contraction caused by some manufacturers suspending shipments, which provided some support for prices, and the market did not show a significant downward trend. As the end of the week approached, transactions improved again, driven by the temporary replenishment of terminal stocks. Manufacturers attempted to push up prices slightly, but after the rise, transactions were weak.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The international oil price has fallen, and the main negative factors are: some oil fields in Iraq have resumed production, and the United States is still pushing for Russia Ukraine peace talks, putting pressure on the oil market. As of December 11th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the February contract was $61.28 per barrel.

On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline, the expectation of a new round of retail price limits for refined oil products has been lowered, and the situation of a light refined oil market is difficult to change. Both buyers and sellers are cautious in their operations, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The MTBE demand side is affected by bearish factors.

Supply side: Ningbo Haode plant starts construction, Dechen Energy plant stops construction, Hebei Xinxinyuan plant starts construction or may produce products, Yuhuang Shengrong and Shandong Chengtai may have the possibility of shutdown. The overall operating rate of the equipment has decreased. The supply of MTBE is affected by favorable factors.

As of the close on December 11th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $0.03/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $643.26-645.26/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $6/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $751.24-751.74/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $22.92 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $636.35-636.71 per ton (179.68-179.78 cents per gallon).

In the future, it is predicted that raw material prices will continue to remain high, and manufacturers are on the brink of losses, with a certain willingness to raise prices. The increase in equipment shutdowns is a certain advantage for the supply side. The MTBE analyst from SunSirs believes that there is a possibility of an upward trend in the domestic MTBE market.

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