SunSirs: Overseas Demand and Domestic Supply Surplus Resonate, MTBE Exports Maintain High Levels Throughout 2025

Customs data indicates that China's total MTBE exports in 2025 reached approximately 4.99356 million tons, marking an increase of roughly 2.50534 million tons compared to 2024—a 48.89% growth rate.

In January 2025, driven by recovering international demand and pre-Spring Festival stockpiling by domestic refineries, exports surged significantly, reaching the highest level in the first half of the year. During February, the Spring Festival holiday disrupted domestic production and logistics, causing exports to decline, though they still recorded a year-on-year increase of 100.62%. Partial fulfillment of orders signed in January-February occurred in March, resulting in a modest export growth for that month.

In April 2025, narrowing export arbitrage opportunities due to falling international crude oil prices and weakening domestic MTBE prices, coupled with downstream gasoline demand entering a seasonal slump, led manufacturers to prioritize domestic inventory digestion over exports. Consequently, MTBE exports narrowly declined. In May, persistently high international MTBE prices closed the export arbitrage window, limiting traders' operational space. Simultaneously, some refineries suspended export orders due to cost pressures, prolonging the downward trend in MTBE exports. In June, sustained high international market prices kept the export arbitrage window open, stimulating active export negotiations and leading to a significant increase in June export orders.

In July 2025, MTBE exports surged dramatically. From June through mid-July, persistent price differentials between domestic and international markets kept the export arbitrage window open for extended periods, greatly stimulating export enthusiasm among enterprises. Coupled with ongoing expansion of domestic MTBE capacity, high production levels, and weak domestic demand, companies actively sought overseas markets to alleviate inventory pressure, resulting in a notable increase in July exports.

From August to October 2025, overseas refinery maintenance created supply gaps. Coupled with declining domestic MTBE prices, the export arbitrage window gradually opened. Manufacturers primarily relied on overseas sales to alleviate weak domestic demand pressure, sustaining high MTBE export volumes.

In November 2025, exports surged past the 600,000-ton threshold. This was driven by the opening of the overseas Christmas stockpiling window, with long-term contract customers in Singapore and the UAE concentrating their shipments. Meanwhile, the domestic MTBE market remained lackluster, and the widening price differential between domestic and international markets stimulated arbitrage transactions.

In December 2025, MTBE export volumes continued to expand, setting a new monthly record high.

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