SunSirs: Bearish Continues, China Rapeseed oil Market is Falling

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the average price of rapeseed oil in the spot market was 9428 RMB/ton on September 15th, and 9,228 RMB/ton on September 19th. During this period, the quotation range decreased by 2.12%.

Recently, the price of rapeseed oil has been continuously declining. On September 14th, the Canadian Bureau of Statistics lowered rapeseed production from 190,000 tons to 17.37 million tons in 2023/2024, a 7.1% decrease from the previous year, marking the lowest production in nine years. However, as Canadian rapeseed enters the harvest period, seasonal supply pressure is heavy, and Canadian rapeseed futures are weak, leading to a decrease in import costs and dragging down the domestic rapeseed market. In the early stage, the quantity of imported rapeseed oil in China was relatively small, and the pressure on rapeseed oil supply was weakened. Due to poor consumption of rapeseed oil, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was relatively high at 618,400 tons, and destocking was relatively slow. The USDA data for September was slightly empty, suppressing the oil market.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the average market price of soybean oil in Shandong Province was 8,760 RMB/ton on September 15th, and 8,676 RMB/ton on September 19th. During this period, the quotation range decreased by 0.96%. On September 15th, the average price of palm oil in the domestic market was 7,560 RMB/ton. On September 19th, the average price of palm oil in the domestic market was 7,416 RMB/ton, with a decrease of 1.90% in the quotation range during this period. The USDA data for September was slightly empty, suppressing the oil market.

In October, rapeseed buying ships will gradually arrive at the port, and domestic supply may further loosen; Entering the peak season of demand for rapeseed oil in the fourth quarter may be beneficial for the storage of rapeseed oil; Lack of positive support, rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate and fall mainly.

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