SunSirs: Spot Price of Rapeseed oil Drops after New Year's Day in China

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the average price of rapeseed oil in the spot market will be 12,992 RMB/ton on January 1, 2023, and 12,392 RMB/ton on January 5, 2023. The quotation rate will drop 4.62% during this period.

After New Year's Day, the spot price of domestic rapeseed oil fell significantly. A large amount of rapeseed and rapeseed oil were imported in November and December, and the supply of rapeseed oil was loose in the later period. The easing of domestic epidemic prevention and control policies, the expected improvement of oil consumption demand, and the boosting of oil stock demand before the festival have supported the rapeseed oil market to a certain extent. The decline in crude oil prices has weakened the current rapeseed oil futures market.

According to statistics, the import volume of rapeseed oil in November 2022 was 1,448,100 tons, an increase of 77.70% month on month and 51.89% year on year. Among them, Russia was the largest supplier. In November, 92,497.61 tons of rapeseed oil were imported from Russia, an increase of 22.38% month on month and 202.57% year on year. In November 2022, the import volume of rapeseed was 476,700 tons, an increase of 517.09% month on month and 183.21% year on year. Among them, 446,157.12 tons of rapeseed were imported from Canada, an increase of 585.26% month on month and 171.67% year on year.

On January 5, the OI2305 contract, the main force of rapeseed oil futures in the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (CZCE), opened at 10,615 RMB/ton and closed at 10,442 RMB/ton, down 208 RMB/ton. The highest was 10,615 RMB/ton and the lowest was 10,405 RMB/ton. Yesterday, 10,650 RMB/ton was settled, 10,511 RMB/ton was settled, 365,164 hands were traded, and 205,180 hands were held.

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the average market price of soybean oil in Shandong Province was 9,460 RMB/ton on January 1, 2023, and 9,330 RMB/ton on January 5, down 1.37%. The average price of palm oil in the domestic market was 8,356 RMB/ton on January 1, 2023, and 8,008 RMB/ton on January 5, down 4.16%. After the New Year's Day, the spot prices of the three major oils and fats declined due to negative factors, including rapeseed oil and palm oil.

Imported rapeseed oil keeps arriving in Hong Kong, and the supply of rapeseed oil is expected to be loose; The demand for grease before the festival is boosted; The decline of spot price of soybean oil and palm oil dragged down. Rapeseed oil analysts of SunSirs predicted that the spot price of rapeseed oil would be dominated by shocks and weak operation, with limited falling space.

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