Ethylene glycol prices moved downward in September 

Ethylene glycol prices softened in September. According to data from SunSirs, as of September 30, the average price of domestic oil-based ethylene glycol was 4,385 RMB/ton, down 2.23% from the average price of 4,485 RMB/ton on September 1.

Regarding ethylene glycol at the port, the basis for the September 30, 2025, spot contract (minimum 500 tons) was stable. The intraday basis range for contracts through October 10 was +64 to +67, with major traders sporadically accepting spot cargoes. As of market close, the basis for contracts through September 30 was quoted at +68 to +69, while the basis for the October contract was quoted at +68 to +71.

Domestic spot prices for coal-based polyester-grade ethylene glycol (bulk, tax included, self-pickup) ranged from 3,930 to 4,150 RMB/ton per truckload.

As of September 29th, recent negotiated prices for ethylene glycol in the overseas market were around $506/ton.

The main reasons for the downward movement of ethylene glycol prices in September:

Supply increased

In September, the domestic ethylene glycol supply saw significant fluctuations, significantly impacting its price. From July to August, several units at Shenghong Refining and Chemical and Shanxi Woneng underwent maintenance or reduced capacity, resulting in a supply contraction and a reduction in port inventories, providing significant support for ethylene glycol prices. However, in September, the overall domestic operating rate rebounded significantly. Yulong Petrochemical's new 800,000 tons/year unit successfully commenced production and was producing qualified products. Meanwhile, units under maintenance at Shenghong Refining and Chemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical restarted operations, putting pressure on supply to increase. In the third quarter, operating rates across all ethylene glycol process lines recovered. Coal-to-ethylene glycol operating rates surged from 58.95% in July to 66.60% in September. The oil-to-ethylene glycol operating rate also rebounded from 64.11% in July to 74.62% in September. The overall operating rate exceeded 71% in September, marking a period of steady growth for the domestic ethylene glycol supply. This, in turn, significantly increased market supply pressure, weakening the factors that had previously supported prices and suppressing ethylene glycol prices in September.

Downstream production was high, but terminal demand was weak

Ethylene glycol demand showed high operating rates but persistently weak demand, which constrained prices in September. The downstream polyester industry's utilization rate remained consistently high at over 87%, supporting strong demand and providing some support for prices. Specifically, the quarterly average utilization rate for polyester filament reached a high of 91.33%, with minimal fluctuations, strongly supporting overall operating levels. The quarterly utilization rate for polyester staple fiber increased by 3.12% month-over-month to 87.42%, primarily due to increased capacity and the commissioning of new plants. However, continued sluggish order growth in the end-use weaving sector had led to a lack of restocking among polyester mills and traders, limiting market activity and hindering effective upward momentum for ethylene glycol prices. Furthermore, the utilization rate for bottle-grade PET declined most significantly, reaching a quarterly average of only 72.45%, a significant drop of 9.38% month-over-month, primarily due to prolonged maintenance or conversions of some plants. The utilization rate for fiber-grade PET also declined slightly month-over-month. The domestic polyester industry's quarterly average operating rate was 86.98%. While this represents a slight decline of 4.09 percentage points from the second quarter, reflecting some seasonal slowdown, the monthly operating rate remained stable within a narrow range of 86.5% to 87.3%. Overall, weak demand meant that ethylene glycol prices lacked significant upward momentum in September.

There is a high probability that ethylene glycol prices will weaken first and then strengthen in October

Overall ethylene glycol port inventories remained relatively low, and spot supply was temporarily under little pressure. The recent price decline was primarily due to pre-holiday storage cost considerations, which had weakened traders' willingness to hold on to goods. This, coupled with weak medium- and long-term expectations, had led to a lack of appetite for stockpiling at downstream retailers. During the National Day holiday, large Canadian and Saudi vessels arrived in large numbers, with a total of 228,000 tons of ethylene glycol scheduled to arrive at East China ports next week. This relatively high volume, coupled with the expected rebound in port inventories, will likely suppress ethylene glycol prices in mid-to-early October. With weak expectations set in place, ethylene glycol is expected to bottom out and rebound, with a high probability that prices will initially weaken before strengthening in October.

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