Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated sideways. According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of June 6, 2025, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 20,246.67 RMB/ton, down 0.28% from the average market price of 20,303.33 RMB/ton on June 1.
Currently, it is in the off-season of demand, the downstream operating rate is low, and the supply and demand of aluminum ingots are relatively weak. On the supply side, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased, the output has increased slightly, and the import volume has remained high, and the supply pressure has increased. On the demand side, in the traditional off-season of consumption, the demand for building profiles and home appliances is weak. Although new energy vehicles can drive some demand, the start-up of the photovoltaic market has declined, and the overall demand growth is weak. On the cost side, the price of alumina may turn down, and the center of gravity of electrolytic aluminum costs has shifted downward, weakening the support for aluminum prices.
However, judging from the social inventory data, the current social inventory of aluminum ingots is at a relatively low level and is in a state of destocking. As of June 5, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream domestic consumption areas was 504,000 tons, down 15,000 tons from the beginning of this week, down 7,000 tons from last Thursday, and down 49,000 tons from May 22. At the same time, June is in the export window period after the tariff adjustment, and the rush to export will also provide some support for aluminum prices.
Macro news
1. The United States imposes a 50% tariff on imported aluminum ingots and their derivatives
On June 3, 2025, local time, US President Trump signed the latest executive order, which will impose a 50% tariff on imported aluminum ingots and their derivatives from 00:01 on June 4, Eastern Time, and the original unified 25% tax rate will be doubled.
In the executive order, the aluminum ingots and derivatives imported from the United Kingdom retain a 25% tax rate, which is in line with the Economic Prosperity Agreement reached by the United States and the United Kingdom in May. If the United Kingdom fails to fulfill its obligations, its tax rate can be raised as early as July 9. In addition, aluminum ingots smelted in the United States can be exempted from tariffs, that is, if the products are melted and cast or cast in the United States, they can still enjoy 0% tariffs even if the subsequent processing is carried out overseas. Aluminum products from Russia are still subject to a heavy tax of 200%. Whether the primary aluminum originates from Russia or the goods are cast in Russia, as long as any of the conditions are met, a 200% import tax will be applied.
2. The European Central Bank cuts interest rates 8 times to 2%
On June 5, local time, the European Central Bank announced that it would cut the three key interest rates by 25 basis points each, including the deposit mechanism rate from 2.25% to 2%, the main refinancing rate from 2.4% to 2.15%, and the marginal loan rate from 2.65% to 2.4%. This is the eighth interest rate cut since June last year, which is in line with market expectations.
The European Central Bank cut interest rates this time mainly because the current overall inflation level in the euro area is close to the 2% medium-term target set by the central bank, and the weakening external economic environment has put pressure on growth prospects. Data showed that the year-on-year growth rate of the eurozone's harmonized CPI in May fell to 1.9%, the first time it has been below 2% since September 2024; core inflation also slowed significantly to 2.3%, the lowest since January 2022.
ECB President Lagarde said at a press conference that after the 25 basis point cut, the ECB is in a good position, and said that "the monetary policy cycle is coming to an end." The market generally predicts that the ECB will temporarily keep interest rates unchanged at the July meeting and may cut interest rates again in September.
3. The call between the leaders of China and the United States sends a positive signal to ease trade frictions
On the evening of June 5, the leaders of China and the United States had a phone call, emphasizing the importance of bilateral relations, affirming the results of the economic and trade talks, and urging the implementation of the economic and trade consensus. After the Geneva talks, China seriously implemented the agreement, and the United States should look at the progress in a realistic way and withdraw the negative measures it has taken against China. The two heads of state agreed that the teams of both sides will continue to implement the Geneva consensus and hold a new round of talks as soon as possible.
4. US non-agricultural data is about to be released
Market forecast
On the supply side, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased, the output has increased slightly, and the import volume has remained high, increasing supply pressure. On the demand side, in the traditional off-season, the demand for building profiles and home appliances is weak. Although new energy vehicles can drive some demand, the start-up of the photovoltaic market has declined, and the overall demand growth is weak. On the cost side, the price of alumina may turn down, and the cost center of electrolytic aluminum has moved down, weakening the support for aluminum prices.
However, June is in the export window period after the tariff adjustment, and the rush to export will provide some support for aluminum prices. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in June is expected to drop to more than 400,000 tons and remain low. The overall inventory level in the second half of the year is low, which has a certain support effect on aluminum prices.
In summary, it is expected that aluminum prices will show a weak and volatile trend in June.
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