Aluminum prices fell in April 

Aluminum prices fell in April. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of April 30, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20,073.33 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.45% from the market average price of 20,576.67 RMB/ton on April 1; Compared to the market average price of 19,540 RMB/ton on April 9th, it has increased by 2.73%.

In early April, due to the impact of US tariff news, the commodity market experienced a stress response, and aluminum prices showed a significant decline. Subsequently, the price of aluminum ingots rebounded and began to return to fundamental considerations.

Fundamental Overview

Recently, the supply and demand fundamentals remained stable, and consumption has shown resilience, especially in domestic consumption where resilience was strong. Policies to promote consumption were still evident. The export of terminal products has been impacted by US tariffs, but during the 90 day window period, transit trade was competing for exports, which made the short-term tariff impact less prominent. However, the supply side was mainly stable, with a slight increase in domestic operating capacity and little fluctuation in imports. Explicit inventory continued to be depleted.

Expectations for May

The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained relatively stable in April, with 2.8 million tons of newly built capacity in Hebei and Guangxi about to be put into use, but still leaving a significant gap. Theoretically, starting from May, there will be a monthly gap of 100,000 tons. Domestic demand was relatively strong, providing some support for aluminum prices; However, under the pressure of global trade risks, the uncertainty of aluminum demand has increased. There was an expectation of a transition from shortage to surplus in aluminum supply and demand throughout the year. Under the influence of US tariffs, the export prospects of aluminum containing end products are bleak, and the demand for aluminum ingots is showing a strong internal and weak external trend, putting pressure on aluminum exports. It is expected that aluminum prices will hover around 20,000 RMB/ton in the short term and enter a horizontal oscillation range.

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