Aluminum prices rebounded in May. According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of May 29, 2025, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 20,396.67 RMB/ton, up 1.61% from the average market price of 20,073.33 RMB/ton on May 1.

Factors affecting aluminum price trends in June

Supply side: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase by about 200,000 tons in June, and the effective operating capacity is expected to climb to more than 44 million tons, and the output will increase slightly. In terms of overseas imports, the import volume is expected to remain at a relatively high level, and the overall supply is increasing, which will put some pressure on aluminum prices.

Demand side: June is the traditional off-season for consumption, and the demand in traditional terminal markets such as building profiles and home appliances may be weak, but the new energy vehicle market maintains rapid growth, which will continue to drive aluminum demand, but the photovoltaic market may significantly decline after the rush to install. In terms of exports, there is a 90-day export window after the adjustment of Sino-US tariffs. There is still a rush to export before the end of the window period, which provides certain support for aluminum prices.

Cost side: The spot price of alumina has insufficient momentum to continue to rise, and there is even the possibility of a decline. The center of gravity of electrolytic aluminum costs is expected to decline, and the support for aluminum prices will weaken. The price of auxiliary material pre-baked anode may continue to fall in June.

Macro factors: There is still uncertainty in international trade relations, the US Treasury issue has caused concerns, and domestic macro policies are waiting to see how they will be implemented. The disturbance on the macro side has made market sentiment more cautious

June aluminum price trend forecast

In summary, it is predicted that the aluminum price will show a weak and volatile trend in June 2025.

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