Macroeconomics

1. [US-India Trade Agreement] According to sources familiar with the matter, India and the United States are close to reaching a trade agreement that could reduce India's current export tariff from 50% to 15%-16%. India may agree to gradually reduce its imports of Russian oil and may also allow more non-GMO U.S. corn and soybean meal into the market.

2. [Japan Imports and Exports] Japan's Ministry of Finance announced on Wednesday that exports grew 4.2% year-on-year in September, with mineral fuel exports contributing. Exports to the United States fell 13.3% that month. Overall, Japan's trade deficit was 314 billion yen (US$2.1 billion). Imports grew 3.3% in September, compared to economists' expectations of a 0.6% increase.

Agricultural and Sideline Products

1. [Sugar] On October 21, white sugar prices in the Kunming market fell to 5,640-5,650 RMB/ton, a decrease of 10 RMB/ton. As of September 30, Yunnan Province had sold a total of 2.214 million tons of sugar (compared to 1.9202 million tons in the same period last year), a sales rate of 91.54%, and industrial inventories of 204,700 tons (compared to 111,800 tons in the same period last year).

2. [Soybean Meal] As of the week ending October 17, soybean meal inventories at major oil mills nationwide declined. Domestic soybean meal inventories were approximately 970,000 tons, down approximately 100,000 tons from the previous week, a decrease of over 9%, and an increase of over 4% year-on-year.

3. [Grain] The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture stated that as of October 20, Ukrainian grain exports in the 2025/26 fiscal year (beginning in July) were 8.017 million tons, a 39.6% decrease from 13.266 million tons in the same period last year. Grain exports from October 1 to 20 were 1.34 million tons, down from 2.82 million tons in the same period last year. Corn exports so far this year were 1.17 million tons, compared to 3.98 million tons in the same period last year.

4. [Rapeseed] The Grain Institute of Western Australia (GIWA) released its monthly report, raising its forecast for rapeseed production in the state for the 2025/26 marketing year across the board, reaching a record high. This is primarily due to expanded planted area, favorable weather conditions, and favorable crop development. GIWA projects Western Australia's rapeseed production at approximately 3.82 million tons, up from the previous month's forecast of 3.33 million tons and a 33.1% year-on-year increase.

5. [Palm Oil] ITS data shows that Malaysia exported 1,044,784 tons of palm oil products from October 1 to 20, a 3.4% increase from the 1,010,032 tons exported in the same period last month.

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