The price of domestic gasoline and diesel declined. As of November 28, the price of domestic 92# gasoline was 7,918.8 RMB/ ton, down 3.59% in half a month; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 8,416.2 RMB/ ton, with a half month drop of 7.56%. There are two main negative factors. First, the cost of crude oil is lower; Second, the demand is poor.
On the cost side, the international crude oil price fell sharply. As of November 25, the settlement price of the main contract of the WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 76.28 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 83.63 dollars/barrel. The Federal Reserve hinted that the interest rate increase is far from over and is not close to the end of monetary tightening. At present, the interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve has limited impact on inflation, which is not enough to reduce inflation. The Federal Reserve may need to take more tightening measures to curb inflation in the future, which will affect the decline of crude oil prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) once again lowered the growth expectation of global crude oil demand in 2022. With the risk of global economic recession intensifying, the future slowdown of demand growth is a certainty, and fuel demand will also face pressure. The most important thing is that the overall economy is weak. The severe epidemic situation in Asia continues to drag down demand expectations. The prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic, and economic weakness depresses oil prices. On the whole, the price of crude oil fell sharply, and the domestic oil product market was affected by the decline.
Supply side: In November, the operating rate of Shandong refinery was maintained, and the supply side was loose. The main refinery was relatively abundant in resource supply, and the main shipping pressure remained, and the gasoline price continued to fall. Recently, the average operating load of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units in Shandong's main refineries has maintained about 65%, the manufacturer's inventory remains unchanged, and the supply of gasoline and diesel is loose. Therefore, the supply of refined oil resources is limited, the operators' intention to enter the market is reduced, and the market buying and selling atmosphere is light.
Demand side: Although the policy of epidemic prevention and control has been relaxed and boosted, the epidemic situation in some areas is still severe, the travel of residents has decreased, the demand for gasoline has declined, and the price of gasoline has fallen continuously. In terms of diesel, the drop in temperature in the north has shrunk, the operating rate of industrial and mining infrastructure in the north has declined, the logistics and transportation industries have been blocked, and the export volume has declined. In October, the diesel export volume was 1.06 million tons, down 39% month on month. The demand for diesel has declined, and the price of diesel has dropped significantly.
SunSirs oil product analyst believes that the price limit range of Western countries on Russian oil is higher than its trading price, which curbs the rise of oil prices. However, OPEC adheres to the policy of reducing production or, to some extent, boosts oil prices. Crude oil coexists with short supply. In terms of domestic supply, the overall operating rate of main refineries and local refineries was maintained, and the output of gasoline and diesel was relatively stable. There is no good news for the short-term holiday. The epidemic situation in many places is severe, people's travel is reduced, the demand for gasoline is sluggish, and the price of gasoline decreases slightly. As the weather turns cold, the operating rate of large industrial and mining infrastructure and other industries is expected to decline. In addition, the export volume declines, and the demand for diesel is poor, the price of diesel market continues to decline in China in the later period.
If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.