Price trend

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of the domestic PTA spot market on November 22 was 5,643 RMB/ton, down 0.86% from the previous day and up 17.84% year on year. The PTA new device was about to be launched, the cost was weakening, and the demand was poor. Under the superposition of bad news, PTA prices maintained a downward pattern.

Analysis review

On the supply side, PTA's large plants had reduced the load and delayed the new units to be put into production before, but the improvement of processing fees drove the production willingness to rise, and the current industry operating rate remained above 74%. In addition, PTA's new capacity was about to be put into trial operation, and the accumulated storage was expected to rise.

In the crude oil market, the international crude oil futures fell on November 21. The settlement price of the main contract of the U.S. WTI crude oil futures was 80.04 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 87.45 dollars/barrel. On the 21st, some media reported that OPEC+may increase production substantially, and the oil price once plummeted by 5%. Then Saudi Arabia denied this rumor and made a strong voice that it might further reduce production. The oil market reversed dramatically, taking back most of the decreases of the day.

The peak of the Double 11th Festival has passed, and the terminal textile and clothing consumption was again weak, the light textile turnover was at a seasonal low, and the grey cloth and yarn inventory was high. Some weaving factories have been closed for holidays or stopped in succession, and the operating rate has shown a downward trend of shock. The comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has dropped to around 56%.

Market outlook

Analysts from SunSirs believe that at present, most PTA devices in China have completed annual maintenance, the pressure for new devices to be put into production is not reduced, and the starting load will continue to rise. Recently, the cost side crude oil and PX have weakened, and the price support for PTA is correspondingly weak. Weak demand is a drag, and it is difficult to see significant improvement within the year. Therefore, on the whole, PTA prices are still expected to weaken in shock.

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