As processing fees have recovered, PTA producers' enthusiasm for production has increased, leading to a steady rise in operating rates and intensifying supply pressure.

Last November, the influx of new capacity further exacerbated the oversupply situation in China's PTA market, driving processing fees to a historic low of RMB80 per ton. Faced with tight cash flow, some PTA producers opted to suspend operations to minimize losses, triggering a profit redistribution process within the chemical fiber industry. As PTA operating rates declined and supply pressure eased, PTA prices bottomed out and rebounded.

Currently, PTA processing fees have recovered to the normal level of 400 RMB/ton, with the industry briefly experiencing rare marginal profitability. As profits improved, previously idled facilities—including Xin Fengming's 3 million-ton unit, Zhuhai BP's 1.1 million-ton unit, and Sichuan Energy Investment's 1 million-ton unit—have successively resumed operations. Although other units underwent maintenance during this period, restarted capacity exceeded idled capacity, resulting in an overall upward trend in domestic PTA operating rates.

Data indicates that while China's PTA operating rate is currently 6.04 percentage points lower than the same period last year—reaching a three-year low—weekly output has surged to 1.46 million tons due to increased production capacity. Following this round of profit redistribution within the chemical fiber industry, PTA producers have seen improved margins, raising the possibility of further operating rate increases and gradually intensifying supply pressure.

Amid growing supply pressure, PTA has re-entered a phase of inventory accumulation. As of the week ending February 5, domestic PTA social inventory stood at 3.2566 million tons, up 111,700 tons (3.55%) from the previous week. PTA factory inventory lasted 3.74 days, increasing by 0.16 days week-on-week and 0.08 days year-on-year. Polyester mills' PTA raw material inventory stood at 8.9 days, up 1.85 days from the previous week but down 1.4 days year-on-year.

Overall, as processing margins recover, PTA producers' enthusiasm for production has increased, driving a steady rise in operating rates and intensifying supply pressure.

With the Spring Festival approaching, downstream and end-user demand for PTA is gradually weakening. As of February 10, the operating rate of domestic polyester enterprises stood at 77.93%, down 5 percentage points year-on-year; the operating rate of the downstream weaving industry was 27%, down 22 percentage points year-on-year.

Recent profit redistribution within the chemical fiber industry chain has led to some improvement in PTA downstream polyester margins, particularly for polyester filament yarn and PET bottle flakes. Therefore, following the Spring Festival, as profits recover, polyester operating rates are expected to rise. However, current polyester filament inventories remain above last year's levels, creating some destocking pressure downstream that may affect the pace of resuming operations. As of February 5, inventories for polyester filament POY, polyester filament DTY, and polyester filament FDY inventories stood at 12.7 days, 19.4 days, and 15.8 days respectively. These figures represent increases of 6.9 days, 2.1 days, and 3.2 days compared to the two weeks preceding the 2025 Spring Festival, and year-on-year increases of 118.97%, 12.14%, and 25.4% respectively.

In summary, the domestic PTA market remains in a state of oversupply, with any price increases viewed as rebounds. Since November last year, profit recovery and synergistic support from raw material costs have driven PTA futures prices to rebound from their lows. However, as PTA prices rise, industry profits recover, operating rates increase, and inventories accumulate accordingly. The issue of oversupply has once again become the dominant factor influencing PTA prices. Under these circumstances, PTA is expected to revert to a weak trend.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on February 12, the SunSirs PTA benchmark price was 5212.07 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.64% compared with the beginning of the month (5298.83 RMB/ton).

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