The price adjustment window of this round of domestic oil products was opened at 24:00 on November 7. The retail price of this round of domestic oil products is expected to increase. Since 2022, the price of oil products has been adjusted twenty times, with twelve increases, seven decreases and one stranding. The change rate of crude oil in this round is starting forward. As the price of raw oil rises, the positive range becomes larger.
Entering the current round of pricing cycle, the international crude oil change rate is beginning to rise. Later, the crude oil continued to rise, and the positive value of the change rate became larger, making the current round of price adjustment of refined oil face upward expectations. First, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points, in line with market expectations, and crude oil denominated in dollars was supported. OPEC will start to reduce production in November, when crude oil production declines, strongly supporting oil prices. Second, EIA data shows that US crude oil exports hit a record high, US total crude oil inventory fell to a nearly 21 year low, and international oil prices rose further. However, the overall economy is weak, and the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic. The economic weakness depresses oil prices. On the whole, favorable factors dominated and international oil prices rose. As of the 2nd day, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States had been reported at 90.00 USD/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures had been reported at 96.16 USD/barrel. The comprehensive change rate of crude oil varieties was 2.60%. It is estimated that the retail price of refined oil in this round will rise by about 140 RMB/ton, and the retail price of refined oil in this round will rise again.
Gasoline: In this cycle, the international crude oil market rose, the news was still supportive of the oil market, the local domestic prevention and control situation was still severe, the travel and activity radius of residents were reduced, the gasoline demand was sluggish, and the refinery shipment was difficult to increase, so the price of local refining gasoline fell slightly.
Diesel: Supported by the peak diesel consumption season, large industrial and mining infrastructure and other industries are actively rushing to work, and the operating rate of outdoor infrastructure and industrial and mining remains high. In addition, the diesel export profits are considerable, and the export enthusiasm of domestic refineries is heating up. In addition, the fifth batch of temporary quotas issued is large, and the export of diesel oil is increasing. Diesel demand remained high. The main sales policy was to protect terminal gas stations, restrict or stop the sale of middlemen, and the diesel market price maintained a small upward trend.
In the later stage, the macro and supply and demand sides are still good for the oil market, and the oil price may be stronger in the future. However, before the European embargo on crude oil and product oil from Russia comes into effect, the oil market is uncertain due to the disturbance of such factors as geopolitics. The operating rate of main refineries and local refineries fluctuates limited, resource supply is relatively tight, domestic gasoline lacks demand support, and the gasoline market is sluggish; The demand for diesel is still strong. With the impact of export growth, the diesel market still has the momentum to rise. However, the price of diesel is close to the price limit, and the price of diesel market has not risen much.
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