On December 31, 2020, the natural rubber commodity index was 38.55, down 0.04 points from the previous day, down 61.45% from the highest point of 100.00 points (2011-09-01), and up 41.31% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)
In December, natural rubber futures and spot prices showed a downward trend. Shanghai rubber: the contract price was 15,355 RMB/ ton at the beginning of December 5, and it closed at 13,900 RMB/ ton on December 31, down 1,410 RMB/ ton, down 9.18%; among them, the highest price was 15,870 RMB/ ton and the lowest price was 13,570 RMB/ ton. Spot rubber: according to the data of natural rubber in East China monitored by SunSirs, the mainstream quotation of domestic Baodao whole rubber market was about 14,387.5 RMB/ ton on December 1, and about 13,000 RMB/ ton on December 31, with a monthly decrease of 9.64%. Among them, the highest price point of this month was 14,587.5 RMB/ ton on December 3, and the lowest point was 13,000 RMB/ ton at the end of the month, which is a very typical volatile downward trend.
New rubber output: in 2020, natural rubber production will be reduced due to diseases and pests, epidemic situation, heavy rainfall, typhoon and other factors. It is estimated that the annual output may decrease by about 10%.
Import and export: According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 711,000 tons in November 2020, an increase of 11.8% year on year. From January to November 2020, China imported 6.755 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 15.5% compared with 5.848 million tons in the same period of 2019.
Inventory: as of December 31, 2020, the natural rubber inventory of the previous period is 172,862 tons, and the warehouse receipt is 160,570 tons, increasing 2,042 tons and 1,800 tons respectively; the No. 20 rubber inventory is 48,002 tons, and the warehouse receipt is 46,489 tons, increasing by 918 tons and 1,007 tons respectively; the natural rubber futures and No. 20 rubber inventory and warehouse receipt inventory of the previous period were increasing.
Downstream demand: first, affected by environmental protection and production restriction and the repeated outbreak of new crown pneumonia in Shandong, tire manufacturers have cut down production and tire factories have started to load down. As of December 24, the start-up load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 57.05%, 4.75% lower than the previous week, 11.05% lower than the same period last year; the start-up load of semi steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 56.98%, 3.47% lower than the previous week, 5.82% lower than the same period last year. Secondly, the prosperity of the industry rebounded, the tire sales continued to improve, the demand caused by the high growth of the downstream automobile industry increased sharply, and the contradiction between supply and demand was difficult to ease in the short term; moreover, affected by the rising prices of carbon black, rubber, butadiene, steel wire and other upstream raw materials, a number of tire enterprises issued price increases.
According to SunSirs analysis, the demand for automobiles has increased rapidly, the demand for tires has improved, the demand for rubber has increased significantly, and it has strong support for the market. Under the comprehensive influence of weather, epidemic and other factors, the output of natural rubber in the world is at a low level in the current year. The downstream demand is picking up, the export volume is increasing greatly, the output of new rubber is slow. At present, the downward trend of the market is mainly affected by the fear of the overseas epidemic situation on the market prospect. In addition, China's Spring Festival holidays is coming, and factory start-up will be affected to a certain extent. It is expected that China natural rubber market will continue to fluctuate.
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