Price trend

The cotton market saw a slight upward trend this week, but with the Spring Festival holiday approaching, the upward momentum gradually weakened. According to data from the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, as of February 13, the spot price of 3128B grade cotton was 16,132 RMB/ton, a weekly increase of 0.91%.

Market Analysis

Supply side: The cotton supply pattern for this year has been largely finalized. As of 24:00 on February 11, the certified inspection weight of cotton for the 2025 cotton season reached 7.4772 million tons. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 7.3768 million tons, an increase of 1.0855 million tons compared with the same period last year. Regarding expectations, according to the intention planting area survey report released by the China Cotton Information Network, the intention planting area for cotton in China in 2026 is expected to decrease by 1.7% year-on-year, and the national cotton output is projected to decrease by 5.8% year-on-year.

On the demand side: According to a survey by the National Cotton Market Monitoring System, as of early February 2026, the average cotton inventory usage days of surveyed enterprises was approximately 40.8 days (including imported cotton arriving at ports), an increase of 1.5 days month-on-month and 2.6 days year-on-year. Currently, textile enterprises have ample cotton inventory, but their short-term purchasing intentions are weak, and the pace of restocking has slowed down, with no significant concentrated restocking demand at present.

Market Status: The number of textile companies on holiday in mainland China continued to increase, and downstream demand entered a temporary off-season. Most cotton companies have entered holiday mode, raw material procurement has basically ended, market logistics and transportation have generally stopped, and the entire upstream and downstream industry chain was in a wait-and-see state before the holiday.

Market Outlook:

After the Lunar New Year, close attention should be paid to international cotton price trends. The widening price gap between domestic and international cotton is expected to drive increased domestic cotton and cotton yarn imports in the first quarter. Going forward, close monitoring of weekly US cotton export data is crucial.

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