On February 12, 2026, data showed that the domestic average price of industrial-grade lithium hydroxide reached CNY 131,500 per ton, rising by CNY 1,000 in a single day—a 0.77% increase—with the price range rebounding to CNY 128,000-135,000 per ton. Battery-grade lithium hydroxide averaged 138,250 RMB/ton, up 0.73%, with the price range expanding to 133,000-143,500 RMB/ton.

Supply Side: Maintenance-driven production cuts and import pressures create short-term dynamics

Current lithium hydroxide supply presents a complex pattern of domestic contraction and overseas supplementation. Affected by planned maintenance before the Spring Festival, domestic lithium salt production is expected to decline significantly month-on-month. Some enterprises have temporarily reduced operating capacity to fulfill earlier orders. However, exports from major overseas sources to China have recently surged significantly. This increased volume is expected to arrive in concentrated shipments over the coming months, potentially offsetting mid-term supply pressures. Concurrently, industry social inventories continue to deplete, reaching a stage low, while upstream suppliers exhibit heightened reluctance to sell. This supply dynamic—tight domestically yet ample overseas—creates short-term tightness in spot market resources. However, medium-term import pressure constrains upward price momentum.

Demand Side: Resilience in Energy Storage Supports Demand Amid Final Pre-Holiday Stockpiling

Demand exhibits a divergent pattern: robust in energy storage, stable in power applications, and weak in consumer sectors. Energy storage has become the core driver of current demand, with global tenders for new energy storage projects showing significant month-on-month growth, pushing up prices for large-capacity energy storage cells. The power battery segment, though affected by pre-Spring Festival production schedule adjustments, benefits from effective buffering by the export market, with overseas order visibility extending into mid-year. Notably, downstream enterprises' pre-holiday stockpiling is nearing completion. With relatively ample raw material inventories, some companies have significantly slowed procurement, leading to a market dominated by small, essential transactions.

Policy Front: Capacity Tariff Support and Carbon Tariff-Driven Upgrades

Policies influence the market through both short-term adjustments and long-term planning. Domestically, new capacity tariff policies explicitly encourage long-duration energy storage development, providing institutional support for lithium hydroxide demand. Internationally, overseas markets have incorporated lithium products into green trade mechanisms, significantly increasing export costs for non-certified goods and compelling companies to accelerate low-carbon process upgrades. More profound impacts stem from global resource strategy competition, with some nations planning large-scale stockpiling of critical minerals, indirectly reinforcing expectations of strategic premiums for lithium resources.

Macroeconomic and Capital Dynamics: USD Volatility and Industrial Capital Differentiation

Macroeconomic fluctuations have amplified price sensitivity. While USD exchange rate movements exert downward pressure on overall commodity valuations, the lithium hydroxide sector continues to attract environmental, social, and governance (ESG)-focused investment capital due to its energy storage applications. Industrial capital flows show divergence: leading downstream enterprises secure most high-end capacity through long-term agreements, while upstream players enhance self-reliance via resource acquisitions. Futures markets exhibit dominant bullish sentiment with robust overall upward expectations.

Outlook: Post-holiday demand recovery may trigger fresh price surge

From the post-Spring Festival period through spring, the lithium hydroxide market is expected to enter a phase of tight supply-demand balance correction. With the concentrated launch of energy storage projects and the resumption of power battery production schedules, downstream enterprises' currently low raw material inventory levels may trigger concentrated restocking demand. Should upstream reluctance to sell persist, prices could challenge new round-number thresholds. In the medium to long term, global lithium hydroxide demand is projected to maintain rapid growth, but supply expansion remains relatively limited. Companies with low-cost salt lake resources or recycled lithium technology will demonstrate greater resilience amid industry fluctuations. Investors should remain vigilant against potential risks such as concentrated arrivals of overseas resources, accelerated adoption of emerging alternative technologies, and shifts in global macro liquidity.

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