Last week, China's polysilicon prices fluctuated without a clear upward or downward trend. The global average polysilicon price rose marginally by 0.2% to $7.08/kg. This increase lacked fundamental support from industry supply and demand dynamics, driven solely by the strengthening of the Chinese yuan.

Data monitoring indicates that both EnergyTrend and InfoLink's price indices for premium polysilicon used in n-type ingots remained stable last week. The Silicon Industry Branch did not release new price data last week, primarily due to the absence of any recorded actual transactions.

Data from different institutions diverged, with PVinsights' price index showing a notable decline of nearly RMB 3.5/kg last week. SMM monitoring revealed a price pattern of initial drop followed by recovery, with polysilicon prices falling over RMB 1.5/kg before gradually rebounding, ultimately closing above the previous week's level of RMB 52/kg.

Bernreuter Research maintained its China n-type polysilicon price index (weighted average of ingots and pellets) unchanged at 51.5 yuan/kg (including 13% VAT, equivalent to approximately 6.57 USD/kg excluding tax); the p-type polysilicon price index also remained steady at 43 yuan/kg (equivalent to approximately 5.48 USD/kg excluding tax). Additionally, InfoLink's non-China polysilicon price index remained stable at $18.5/kg.

Unlike previous years, wafer manufacturers did not stockpile polysilicon ahead of this year's Spring Festival holiday (February 15-23). The primary reason lies in ample raw material inventories coupled with weak market demand, dampening companies' motivation to build inventories.

Regarding the recent pullback in silver prices after a prolonged uptrend, industry views diverge on its impact. SMM suggests this move may provide some support for polysilicon prices, while the Silicon Industry Branch contends that silver paste costs for solar cell production remain elevated, making it unlikely that the silver price decline will have widespread effects. This week, wafer prices fell sharply again by approximately 7%, which will continue to exert downward pressure on polysilicon prices.

According to CSI data, China's polysilicon output declined by 8.3% from 111,200 metric tons in December 2025 to approximately 102,000 metric tons in January 2026, a decrease lower than the association's previous week's forecast of 15%. For February output, the association anticipates production below 85,000 metric tons. However, even with this decline, the market will remain oversupplied—the association estimates February polysilicon demand at around 80,000 metric tons, indicating the supply-demand imbalance will persist.

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