Price trend
According to SunSirs' commodity price analysis system, from February 2nd to 6th, the domestic price of BDO remained at 7,357 RMB/ton, maintaining a stable price compared to the previous period, but down 12.41% year-on-year. Supply continued to increase, while downstream demand weakened, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance and negatively impacting market sentiment. However, the low market price limited profit margins, leading manufacturers to maintain stable prices. The weak market situation for domestic BDO continued.
Market analysis
On the supply side, regarding production facilities, the national cancellation of BDO value-added tax export rebates effective April 1, 2026, has led some export traders to stockpile goods in advance, but this has had a limited impact on boosting the domestic BDO market. The impact from the BDO supply side was mixed.
Statistics on the operating status of some production facilities:
|
region |
Device dynamics |
|
Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe |
The first phase was parked on August 27, 2024. The second and third phases were in stable operation |
|
Xinjiang Meike |
The third phase of the plant was stopped, and the first, second, fourth and fifth phases were running steadily |
|
Inner Mongolia Sanwei |
300,000 tons/year BDO plant load 70-80% |
|
Xinjiang Guotai Xinhua |
The two sets of 200,000-ton units were relatively stable in operation |
|
Xinjiang Xinye |
The first phase of the 60,000-ton plant and the second phase of the 70,000+70,000 tons/year plant were running stably |
|
Ningxia Wuheng Chemical |
The load of the device was 60-70% |
|
Sichuan Wanhua |
The 100,000-ton plant was running steadily |
In terms of costs, for calcium carbide: the calcium carbide market showed an initial upward trend followed by stabilization. On the supply side, the impact of orderly power consumption in Inner Mongolia was gradually weakening, and production in major producing areas remained stable. Calcium carbide supply slightly increased, market purchasing sentiment was positive, and companies were shipping smoothly, with some companies experiencing tight supply. For methanol: the methanol market was fluctuating and consolidating. As of 3:00 PM on February 6th, the domestic methanol price in Taicang was approximately 2,200 RMB/ton. The rising price of calcium carbide and the fluctuating and consolidating price of methanol had a mixed impact from BDO costs.
On the demand side, with the approaching Spring Festival holiday, some downstream PBT factories were undergoing maintenance shutdowns, and some smaller polyurethane manufacturers had also closed for the holidays ahead of schedule. Overall demand decreased, widening the supply-demand gap in the industry and negatively impacting market sentiment. The demand side for BDO was bearish.
Market outlook:
As the Spring Festival holiday approaching, some downstream factories were suspending operations for the break, while production facilities maintained stable operation. This was intensifying supply and demand pressure in the market, leading to a bearish sentiment among industry participants. According to SunSirs' BDO analyst, the domestic BDO market is expected to remain in a wait-and-see and consolidation phase.
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