Price trend

This week, the acrylic acid market was able to maintain stable prices mainly due to manufacturers' willingness to hold prices firm. As of February 3rd, SunSirs' benchmark price for acrylic acid was 6,116.67 RMB/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month.

Market analysis

Cost side:

The price of propylene, a key raw material, was consolidating within a range, and the slight weakening of the cost side was the most crucial turning point signal. The core logic of "cost-driven" price support that had prevailed in the past few months was failing. As of February 3rd, SunSirs' benchmark price for propylene was 6,391.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.21% compared to the beginning of the month (6,404.33 RMB/ton).

Demand Side:

The strong wait-and-see attitude at the beginning of the week directly revealed the weakness on the demand side. It's not that there's no demand downstream, but rather that buyers are generally "waiting for prices to fall" or "purchasing only as needed." This mentality has caused the market to lose its "fuel" for price increases, resulting in sluggish trading. As the Chinese New Year approaching, downstream factories are gradually closing for the holidays, which is an irreversible seasonal negative factor. The contraction in demand is shifting from expectation to reality, and this downward pressure will only intensify.

Market Overview:

The "stability" is a fragile and weak equilibrium. It's not a healthy stability driven by robust supply and demand, but rather a temporary stalemate in a downward trend, caused by sellers unwilling to lower prices and buyers unwilling to purchase. Both buyers and sellers are locked in a standoff at this critical "price" point, but the clock is ticking towards the weaker demand of the Spring Festival, and the balance is subtly shifting.

Market outlook

Short-term (before the holiday): This stalemate of "prices exist but no transactions occur" may continue for a few more days, but the exhaustion of either party's patience could break the balance. If a major manufacturer lowers prices to recoup funds, or if propylene prices fall further, it could trigger a small, tentative price decline.

Post-holiday period: The real direction of the market will be determined after the Spring Festival. Two key factors need to be considered: firstly, whether the pace of downstream businesses resuming operations and restocking efforts can quickly stimulate demand; and secondly, the extent of inventory pressure on upstream raw materials and factories. If the resumption of work falls short of expectations and inventories remain high, the pressure may be released in a concentrated manner after the holiday.

Conclusion: The "stable operation" should be viewed as a stalemate or buffer phase within a downward market trend, rather than a signal of a trend reversal and stabilization. Under the combined influence of weakening costs and a weak demand season, the risk of a downward market adjustment is greater than the probability of an upward breakthrough.

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