Entering 2026, the Chinese acrylic acid market did not experience the expected "strong start," but instead fell into a volatile stalemate of "neither rising nor falling," caught between continuously rising raw material costs and weak recovery in end-user demand. This aligns with the downward trend of "no effective rebound" observed throughout 2025.

Price trend:

After entering January 2026, prices gradually stabilized. As of January 20th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid according to SunSirs was 6,000.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.56% compared to the beginning of the month (5,850.00 RMB/ton).

Cost side:

Propylene raw material prices were rising: Recently, propylene prices have been trending upwards, with the estimated price range in the Shandong region rising to 5,750-5,810 RMB/ton, and further upward pressure is expected. As propylene is a direct raw material for acrylic acid, accounting for over 60% of its production cost, this price increase directly drove up the cost of acrylic acid production.

Narrowing profit margins: Although acrylic acid prices have rebounded slightly, the increase was far less than that of the raw material propylene, leading to further compression of production profits. By the end of 2025, the industry's profit per ton had fallen to a low level. Under current cost pressures, small and medium-sized high-cost enterprises may face losses, forcing them to reduce production or shut down.

Supply side:

The restart of some facilities (such as one plant in Zibo) has increased local supply, but the overall operating rate of the industry remained suppressed. Prices consistently below the cost line have triggered capacity rationalization, leading some companies to undergo maintenance or delay restarting operations.

Demand side:

Downstream industries such as coatings and adhesives were in their traditional off-season, with procurement mainly focused on small orders driven by essential needs. The export market was under pressure, with weak global demand and competition from low-cost production capacity in the Middle East limiting export growth.

Short-term outlook:

The market is volatile with an upward bias, but upside potential is limited. Strong cost support is in place, and if propylene prices continue to strengthen, it will passively drive up acrylic acid prices. After prices reach the 5800 RMB/ton cost line, further downward movement will face increased resistance, triggering a supply contraction. Demand has not shown significant improvement, and downstream buyers remain cautious, with some factories potentially suspending operations early before the Spring Festival. The overcapacity situation remains unchanged, and any rebound may stimulate the release of existing capacity, suppressing price increases.

Price Range: It is expected that the mainstream price in the East China market will fluctuate between 5,900 and 6,200 RMB/ton in the short term. A breakout from this range would depend on a significant increase in costs or an unexpected contraction in supply.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.