The import volume of rapeseed in China will be about 2.5 million tons in 2025, a decrease of about 60% compared to 2024.

The article shows that the import volume of rapeseed in China will decrease by 60% year-on-year in 2025, leading to a tight supply of rapeseed oil raw materials and an increase in pressing costs, which significantly benefits the rise in spot prices. Based on the data of rapeseed oil OI futures (such as the closing price of contract 2605 at 9,215 RMB/ton, settlement price at 9,186 RMB/ton, down 70 RMB), although there is downward pressure in the current market, the expectation of supply contraction will support the future rebound of futures prices, with long-term positive factors dominating.

The significant reduction in rapeseed imports also reduces the supply of rapeseed meal, increases production costs, and benefits the upward trend of spot prices. Referring to the futures data of rapeseed meal (such as the closing price of contract 2605 at 2,249 RMB/ton, settlement price at 2,267 RMB/ton, down 12 RMB), despite the weak performance of short-term contracts, the favorable supply side of raw material shortage will drive the stabilization and recovery of the futures market.

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