In January, the domestic spot price of soybean meal shifted upward month-on-month. This was primarily due to extended customs clearance times disrupting soybean supply chains for some enterprises, coupled with heightened downstream stockpiling sentiment ahead of the Spring Festival, which slightly lifted the price center. Domestic spot soybean meal prices may continue a modest upward trend in February.

Statistics indicate that the average monthly price for 43% protein soybean meal in January was 3,147 RMB/ton, representing a month-on-month increase of 0.99% and a year-on-year rise of 6.54%. As the Spring Festival approaches, regions have gradually initiated stockpiling activities. Factory pickup data showed strong performance, with multiple instances of increased volume in forward basis transactions during the month, driving overall spot prices higher. The average operating rate of soybean processing plants nationwide slightly decreased month-on-month in January, with some regional enterprises planning shutdowns. Both the total volume and daily average volume of domestic soybean meal transactions saw significant month-on-month increases, with forward basis transactions also showing increased volume in certain regions. According to statistics from Zhuochuang Information, the total soybean crushing volume of 122 major oil mills surveyed nationwide in January reached 8.5722 million tons, down 453,800 tons month-on-month. Regarding basis, as of January 30, the domestic soybean meal spot basis stood at 376 RMB/ton, narrowing by 16 RMB/ton from 360 RMB/ton on January 4.

February 2026 Price Drivers Assessment

International Market: Brazil's accelerated harvest pressures U.S. soybean futures; Argentina weather remains a focus. According to data from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA), as of the week ending January 30, soybean harvest progress in Mato Grosso for the 2025/26 season reached 24.97% of planted area, advancing 11.09 percentage points from the previous week. This exceeds both the 12.20% recorded during the same period last year and the five-year average of 12.57%. The accelerated soybean harvest in Brazil, coupled with solid yield expectations, has pressured CBOT futures prices, transmitting bearish influences to domestic soybean meal prices. Additionally, Argentina's weather conditions warrant close attention this month. Persistent drought is expected to maintain below-average soil moisture in Buenos Aires and Santa Fe provinces. Recent rainfall prospects will significantly impact late-planted crops.

Supply Outlook: Raw soybean supply is showing seasonal declines, with factories shutting down during the Spring Festival period and operating rates falling to annual lows. First, regarding raw materials: According to Zhuochuang Information's estimates of soybean arrivals and surveys of domestic crushing plant operations, soybean arrivals for February-April 2026 are projected at 4.9 million tons, 5.0 million tons, and 10.0 million tons respectively. Soybean arrivals show a seasonal decline, with a pattern of tightness followed by easing. Regarding production capacity: Affected by the holiday season, most enterprises plan to suspend operations during the Spring Festival period. Production capacity utilization rates in February may drop to the lowest level of the year. Considering the current soybean and soybean meal inventories held by domestic producers, as of the week ending January 30, 2026, key domestic producers held 6.138 million tons of soybean inventory and 898,000 tons of soybean meal inventory—both at historically high levels for this time of year. State reserve auctions for imported soybeans may resume around the Spring Festival, partially supplementing raw material supply. Overall, February is expected to see tightening in the raw material supply chain, but the ample spot market may limit soybean meal price increases.

Demand Outlook: Pre-holiday stockpiling is nearing completion, with minor replenishment demand expected from end-users after the holiday. The pre-holiday stockpiling window continues to shorten, and market sentiment is expected to shift from strong to weak. Physical inventories at some medium-to-large enterprises can largely cover needs until early March. After the holiday, some small-to-medium enterprises and end-users may have inventory replenishment needs. Overall, downstream demand will decline due to the holiday, exerting a neutral impact on soybean meal prices.

In summary, entering February 2026, both market supply and demand are expected to decline, potentially narrowing the supply-demand gap and supporting spot prices. Spot spot prices are projected to see a slight increase compared to the previous month.

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