In the recent coke market, coke producers proposed the first round of price increases on January 16, with hikes ranging from 50 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton, scheduled to take effect on January 19. After prolonged negotiations between coke and steel enterprises, major steel mills remained unresponsive by month-end.

From early December 2025 to January 23, 2026, the overall capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants nationwide declined from 72.64% to 71.41%, marking two consecutive weeks of decline. Affected by environmental production restrictions and worsening profit losses, coking enterprises are actively or passively adjusting production rhythms, though the overall reduction remains modest and largely stable.

After four consecutive rounds of price cuts, coking plants are now deeply in the red. The intensifying losses, coupled with cost support from rising coking coal prices at the raw material end, provide a foundation for price increases. Meanwhile, improved profitability at steel mills, fluctuating adjustments in pig iron output, and the gradual onset of winter stockpiling activities create favorable conditions for the initial round of coke price hikes to take effect. However, in the long term, steel mills' profits remain near the break-even point, not yet fully escaping losses. Furthermore, some blast furnace maintenance has not yet concluded, and whether rigid demand can be sustained remains to be seen. Therefore, even if this round of price increases materializes, the gains will be limited. Future trends will depend on factors such as the recovery of steel mill profits, pig iron output, and changes in raw material costs.

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