Yesterday, as the domestic futures market approached its afternoon close, the main coking coal and coke futures contracts for May 2026 (2605) continued their upward momentum. Following the night session opening, prices surged higher from the start.

With the Spring Festival approaching, coal mines are gradually reducing production or suspending operations. The market anticipates a decline in supply, while demand has not fallen in tandem.

Before the holiday, coking coal supply and demand may experience temporary tightness. Additionally, the first round of price hikes in the coke market has officially taken effect, improving coking enterprises' profits and creating room for coking coal price increases. Recent gains in coking coal and coke futures reflect the market's anticipation of improved supply-demand dynamics.

Recently, the real estate sector in the stock market has risen, spurred by news such as “multiple real estate companies are no longer required by regulators to report monthly ‘three red lines’ indicators.” Combined with the sustained rally in precious metals and non-ferrous metals prices, strong bullish sentiment has driven the strengthening of ferrous metals futures.

Although the coking coal market remains in a tight supply-demand balance, its prices have already risen significantly in the previous period, leaving limited room for further increases. Currently, some coal varieties in Shanxi have seen price reductions. Mongolian coal prices have also retreated somewhat from earlier highs due to high inventory levels and increased customs clearance volumes. While some coal mines will suspend production before the Spring Festival, this is a seasonal factor. Downstream enterprises will also prepare for winter stockpiling in advance, which cannot provide strong support for significant increases in coking coal prices.

The coke market also maintains a tight supply-demand balance. However, steel mills' coke inventories remain at reasonable levels. Furthermore, despite recent low molten iron output and potential winter restocking needs, steel mills have not engaged in large-scale inventory replenishment. Consequently, the recent rebound in coke futures primarily reflects a correction after earlier declines.

It is understood that coking coal mines primarily increased production in January to offset the impact of production halts and reductions during the Spring Festival holiday. Coal production is expected to decline significantly in February as mines gradually close for the holiday. Data shows that sample mines will have holiday closures ranging from 2 to 62 days this year, with an average closure of 10.1 days, similar to last year. The planned production halts and reductions at coal mines involve 744 million tons of capacity, impacting raw coal output by 18.68 million tons. Regarding imports, Mongolian coal customs clearance volumes remained high in January, with relatively ample port inventories.

Reporters note that the Indian government recently designated coking coal as a key strategic mineral.

While India is a major coal producer, most of its resources are thermal coal, leaving a significant gap in coking coal supply. India ranks among the top coking coal importers globally and is the world's second-largest steel producer. Fueled by rapid economic growth, it has emerged as the fastest-growing major coking coal importer. In 2025, India imported 73.53 million tons of metallurgical coal—a 32% year-on-year increase—primarily sourced from Australia and other nations, reflecting its substantial demand and import dependency on coking coal resources. India has designated coking coal as a critical strategic mineral, intensifying efforts to develop domestic resources and strengthen overseas supply chains. On one hand, it is promoting local exploration and mining to ensure self-sufficiency; on the other, it is securing stable overseas supplies to reduce costs and enhance the coal-coke-steel industrial chain. This development has triggered market reassessment of coking coal's value.

India aims to double its steel production within the next five years. Combined with its high reliance on coking coal imports, India is expected to remain a key driver of global coking coal demand in the foreseeable future.

For the future trajectory of coking coal and coke, it is advisable to monitor the restocking progress of downstream coke producers and steel mills, as well as subsequent pig iron output. Should steel mill profits recover, increased raw material procurement would provide some support for coking coal prices. Coke prices, meanwhile, are expected to follow coking coal more closely.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.