According to a January 30 report by CNBC Indonesia, Refinitiv data showed that on Thursday (January 29, 2026), the benchmark ICE Newcastle coal futures contract traded higher for consecutive sessions. closing over $110 higher at $111.75 per tonne, a 2.43% increase from the previous session.
This price surge broke the prolonged period of stagnant fluctuations in thermal coal prices. Over three trading days, prices climbed from $108.65 per ton to $111.75 per ton, marking a cumulative increase of 2.85%. This represents a five-month high since August 2025, with prices once again approaching the anticipated $120 per ton threshold.
The rise in international coal prices has been supported by positive developments from multiple fronts, including Russia, the United States, and China.
Recently, major thermal coal mines in China have begun raising domestic coal sales prices due to new shifts in supply and demand conditions. Price trends indicate rising thermal coal prices in key Chinese production regions, signaling a shift toward more positive market sentiment—a marked contrast to the previous downward trend. Thermal coal prices at northern Chinese ports have also seen slight increases. This price growth primarily stems from relatively tighter supply and stabilizing-to-rising demand from power plants, thereby easing pressure from oversupply.
Russia's exports also delivered positive news. Russian thermal coal export prices rose during the first weeks of 2026, increasing by 4.5% to 12% between early and mid-January. This price surge was most pronounced in high-end products, driven primarily by tightening global supply and stable demand from major Asian buyers.
U.S. coal prices finally rose due to the storm. Reports indicate the U.S. power grid heavily relied on fossil fuels during the “Fern” cold snap. Coal-fired generation surged by 31% over the weekend.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), coal-fired generation surged sharply in the latter half of January, climbing from a mid-month low of approximately 70 gigawatt-hours per day to around 130 gigawatt-hours per day.
Starting Friday, Fern brought snow, ice, and extremely low temperatures to vast swathes of the U.S., stretching from Texas to New England.
During the weekend of the Fern cold snap, natural gas-fired power generation across the contiguous 48 states increased by 14% compared to the previous week, while solar, wind, and hydroelectric generation declined.
Power grid operators can only rely on coal-fired power plants to ramp up electricity production during extreme weather and other circumstances.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration noted, “Similar patterns occur when demand surges or other sources' output declines, as seen during extreme cold snaps in February 2021 and January 2025.”
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) issued emergency orders on Saturday and Sunday requiring certain power sources to remain operational during Winter Storm Fern, citing persistent cold weather and increasingly Arctic weather conditions.
The latest 21-day forecast indicates tightening energy margins in the region from Friday, January 30, to Sunday, February 1. The prolonged extreme cold has triggered surges in both peak and total energy consumption.
If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.
