According to China Chemical Information Weekly, prices for smelter-grade sulfuric acid have recently increased in certain domestic regions. In areas such as Gansu, Yunnan, and Guangxi, ex-factory or delivered prices for 98% smelter-grade sulfuric acid have generally climbed to the range of 960–1110 yuan per ton. This regional price surge for smelter-grade sulfuric acid was directly triggered by a short-term contraction in supply. Operational instability in some sulfuric acid production facilities has led to insufficient operating rates, with inventories remaining persistently low or even declining. Driven by tight supply, prices have risen accordingly. This “tight balance” scenario provides solid support for short-term market prices. The market widely believes that, propelled by favorable factors, sulfuric acid prices are more likely to rise than fall in the near term.

In 2025, the sulfuric acid market witnessed an unprecedented surge. According to data from the BuyChemPlast Research Institute, the annual average price of 98% sulfuric acid in Jiangsu Province reached 705 yuan per ton, marking a 113.06% increase compared to 2024. Prices climbed from a low of 400 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to a high of 1,170 yuan per ton in December. The core drivers of this surge stemmed from skyrocketing upstream raw material costs and a deep supply-demand mismatch within the industry. Throughout 2025, prices for sulfur and pyrite remained persistently high. At Zhenjiang Port, the price of mainstream granular sulfur briefly peaked at 4,200 yuan/ton, hitting a two-year high. This substantial increase in raw material costs pushed sulfuric acid producers into negative profit margins, leading to frequent plant maintenance and production cuts. Concurrently, smelters faced persistently negative processing fees. Combined with concentrated maintenance at multiple acid plants, market supply contracted continuously. Meanwhile, downstream industries like fertilizers and titanium dioxide maintained robust demand. This supply-demand imbalance sustained sulfuric acid prices at elevated levels throughout the year.

As the core raw material for sulfuric acid production, sulfur's globally priced nature makes the domestic market highly susceptible to international supply chain disruptions. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East in 2025 and predatory sulfur consumption by Indonesia's nickel smelting projects widened China's sulfur import gap, substantially increasing landed costs and driving port inventories to persistently low levels. The sharp rise in sulfur prices directly impacted sulfuric acid production. Not only did it dampen the production willingness of sulfuric acid producers using sulfur feedstock, but it also drove up prices for smelting acid and pyrite acid, creating a pattern of price increases across all categories. As a byproduct of non-ferrous metal smelting, smelter acid supply is constrained by copper concentrate processing fees and smelter operating rates. With processing fees persistently negative, smelter acid supply struggles to expand effectively, further exacerbating market tightness.

The 2026 Sulfuric Acid Capacity Expansion Wave is Imminent

According to incomplete statistics, the total new/expanded sulfuric acid capacity in China is projected to exceed 20 million tons per year by 2026. Key downstream sectors including titanium dioxide, phosphoric acid, caprolactam, potassium sulfate, and lithium iron phosphate plan to add over 4.8 million tons per year in total capacity. Based on their respective sulfuric acid consumption rates, this new capacity is projected to add approximately 14 million tons/year to sulfuric acid demand.

Preliminary calculations indicate China's total sulfuric acid supply in 2026 will reach about 109 million tons, while consumption in major sectors is expected to be 107 million tons. This results in a theoretical annual supply-demand gap of roughly 2 million tons, showing early signs of a “slightly oversupplied” market. Regarding the ramp-up schedule, a significant portion of the new sulfuric acid capacity—18 million tons—is slated for release in the second half of the year. Concurrently, new downstream demand is also concentrated in the latter half. This temporal mismatch may lead to a temporary intensification of supply-demand tensions in the second half. The market will likely face tight supply conditions in the first half, with prices potentially remaining at elevated levels.

The 2026 sulfuric acid market will be a persistent tug-of-war between “elevated costs” and “gradually easing supply-demand fundamentals.” On one hand, prices for key raw materials like sulfur are expected to remain relatively high, providing rigid cost support for sulfuric acid prices and limiting significant downside potential. Particularly in the first half, when new capacity has yet to be fully released and some existing capacity remains cost-constrained, cost-driven dynamics may remain dominant. On the other hand, as massive new capacity comes online in the second half of the year, market supply capacity will significantly increase. Should downstream demand growth (particularly in new energy-related sectors like lithium iron phosphate) fall short of expectations, or if production ramp-up schedules vary, the pressure of “supply exceeding demand” will shift from expectation to reality, exerting substantial downward pressure on market prices.

For downstream industries, persistently high sulfuric acid prices will further elevate production costs. Sectors like fertilizers and titanium dioxide face mounting cost pressures, confronting dual challenges of cost pass-through and profit recovery.

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