Since mid-December 2025, the international shipping market has witnessed a wave of counter-trend price hikes. Leading global shipping companies including France's CMA CGM, Denmark's Maersk, and Germany's Hapag-Lloyd have successively issued rate increase notices covering core trade regions such as Asia-Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America, affecting over 70% of global shipping routes. Increased charges include base rates, all-in rates, peak season surcharges, and carbon emission surcharges. Notably, the freight rate for a 40-foot container on the North Africa route has surged past $8,500, marking an increase of over 30% from the previous market average.

Is this shipping rate surge, dubbed a “rare storm,” a short-term shock or a cyclical turning point? How is the market responding? How can SMEs secure space and reduce costs? Shenzhen Business Daily interviewed cross-border e-commerce players, freight forwarders, maritime industry experts, and economists to deeply analyze the survival logic and breakthrough strategies behind this shipping game.

Since mid-December 2025, France's CMA CGM has issued multiple freight rate adjustment notices covering key trade routes including Asia-Europe, Asia-Africa, and Asia-Latin America. From January 1 to 14, 2026, the highest rates for 20-foot containers on Asia-Mediterranean and Asia-North Africa routes reached $5,500, while 40-foot containers (including high-cube containers) on North Africa routes surged to $8,500 per container—a rise exceeding 30% over previous market averages. Effective January 1, 2026, new base rates will apply on Asia-to-North Europe routes: $2,000 per 20-foot container and $3,600 per 40-foot container. Additionally, a $250 per TEU peak season surcharge will be imposed starting December 29, 2025. This dual rate adjustment significantly escalates corporate shipping costs.

Subsequently, leading global carriers including MSC, Maersk, and Hapag-Lloyd swiftly followed suit with rate hike announcements. These adjustments cover over 70% of global shipping routes, spanning Asia-Africa, Asia-Middle East, and Asia-Latin America, with over 80% overlap in the magnitude of increases.

From a cost perspective, the price hikes encompass diverse fee categories. These include common charges such as basic rates, all-in rates, peak season surcharges, and heavy lift cargo (HLC) surcharges, alongside less frequent new fees like carbon emission surcharges and import inspection/scanning fees. In some pricing structures, the carbon emission surcharge is approximately $15–20 per TEU, while the “import inspection and scanning fee” is €25 per container. Some shipping lines are focusing on specific high-demand routes, imposing a flat $500 per container surcharge across all container types. Additional fees include a $1,000 per container “freight recovery charge” and a $200 cancellation fee. In some pricing structures, the carbon emission surcharge is approximately $15–20 per TEU, while the “import inspection and scanning fee” is €25 per container. Some shipping lines have focused on specific high-demand routes, imposing a flat $500 per container surcharge across all container types. Additional fees include a $1,000 “freight recovery charge” per container and a $200 cancellation fee.

From Multiple Pressures to Differentiated Responses

Since mid-to-late December 2025, shipping lines' new round of price hikes has taken effect, further escalating maritime costs and significantly impacting market entities like foreign trade enterprises and cross-border e-commerce players.

Freight Forwarders Face Multiple Challenges

Amid the current market dynamics of volatile freight rates, freight forwarders—as the core hub connecting shippers and shipping lines—confront both opportunities and challenges. On the upside, rising freight rates can boost forwarder commissions (typically 3%-5% of freight charges). Forwarders with stable舱位 resources can charge “舱位 service fees,” while customized integrated logistics solutions—such as multimodal transport options (sea-rail intermodal, barge transfers)—generate value-added service revenue. Risks primarily manifest in two areas: cost inversion and market volatility. If a freight forwarder has a fixed-price agreement with a shipper but the shipping line raises rates in the short term, the forwarder may incur losses where the selling price is lower than the purchase price. On the market side, if freight rates decline, the value of accumulated space may depreciate, and customer demand for space and rate lock-ins may decrease as rates fall.

The current global shipping rate surge stems from a convergence of natural factors, human actions, market conditions, and geopolitical tensions. Contributing elements include: the ongoing Red Sea crisis, drought conditions in the Panama Canal, peak demand before the Chinese New Year, cost pressures from fuel and other inputs, and shipping companies' capacity management strategies.

However, market projections indicate that the container shipping market will face overcapacity challenges by 2026. Hu Zhenyu noted that Xeneta's Ocean Outlook 2026 forecasts a potential 25% decline in global average spot rates and a roughly 10% drop in long-term contract rates by that year. BIMCO also forecasts that the gap between global capacity supply and demand growth will be around 4% in 2026, putting downward pressure on freight rates. The actual situation facing the container shipping market in 2026 will be one where supply growth slightly outpaces demand growth. From the supply side, global container ship capacity growth is projected at 3.6% by 2026, with a supply-demand gap of approximately 0.6 percentage points (supply growth of 3.6% versus demand growth of 3%). This indicates that capacity supply growth will slightly outpace demand growth, placing the market under pressure from oversupply.

This surge has exposed excessive concentration in the global shipping market, granting carriers disproportionate pricing power while continuously weakening shippers' bargaining capacity. Taking a broader view, enhancing the resilience of the entire supply chain remains the fundamental solution to weathering global shipping volatility.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@SunSirs.com.