According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, looking at the trend of domestic corn prices throughout the year, the corn market in 2025 showed a trend of "continuous rebound in the first half of the year, mid year high and falling back, and mild rebound at the end of the year". Taking into account the domestic corn prices in recent years, the overall price of corn in 2025 was relatively low and fluctuated upwards in four years. The overall trend of domestic corn prices in 2025 was relatively small compared to previous years, and it fluctuated within a narrow range. On January 1, 2025, the average price of third grade yellow corn was 2,037.14 RMB/ton, and on December 30, the average price was 2,251.43 RMB/ton, an increase of 10.52% within the year.

Review of Corn Market in 2025

At the end of 2024, there was a concentrated increase in domestic new season corn, and downstream corn inventories were effectively replenished, leading to continuous reductions in corn purchase prices. Domestic corn prices were slightly under pressure in January and hit a bottom. On January 10th, domestic corn prices fell to a low of 2,032.86 RMB/ton for the year. Affected by factors such as the fast progress of grassroots grain sales, low inventory of aged grains, and import contraction, the domestic corn market has gradually entered a stage of tight supply, coupled with a stage of recovery in feed demand, which has continued to boost the domestic corn price trajectory. In the first half of the year, the overall domestic corn price hit the bottom and continued to rise.

Entering the third quarter, with the continuous auction of imported corn, the successive listing of spring corn in the new season, and the emergence of wheat substitution advantages in the feed end, the supply pressure in the domestic corn market has increased, and corn prices have gradually entered a downward channel. In the fourth quarter, the new season corn in Northeast and North China was concentrated on the market, with a significant increase in supply. Coupled with the continuous rainy weather in some areas of North China, which led to high moisture content and decreased quality of corn, farmers sold off trendy grains. In addition, the depletion of pig production capacity resulted in weak demand for feed. Under the pressure of many negative factors, the domestic corn market has shifted from a "supply shortage" to a "temporary surplus" situation, and corn prices have been under pressure and downward. Starting from the high point of July 2nd this year (2,367.14 RMB/ton), the average domestic corn price has fallen by about 9.29% from the high point in July until the end of October.

Starting from November, with the acceleration of grassroots grain sales and the decrease in surplus grain, coupled with the demand for replenishment from deep processing enterprises and the expectation of stable prices through policies, domestic corn prices have gradually rebounded. As of December 31st, domestic corn prices have slightly rebounded by 4.79% from the October low.

Analysis of Core Influencing Factors of Corn Market in 2026

In terms of cost: By 2025, the overall domestic corn market will be in a situation of "strong supply and stable demand". The impact of planting costs and supply and demand on domestic corn prices is relatively high, with production costs providing strong support for the domestic corn market price. In 2025, domestic seed prices and labor costs will remain high overall, while urea prices will slightly decline. Domestic corn planting profits will continue to be low in 2025, and land rental costs will relatively stabilize. The overall cost of domestic corn planting is expected to fluctuate and stabilize. It is expected that domestic corn planting costs will continue to maintain the level of 2025 in 2026. Under the overall support of planting costs, domestic corn prices will operate within the range of 2,000 RMB/ton or above by 2026.

In terms of import and export: affected by the continuous low price of domestic corn, it is difficult for imported corn to form a price advantage for domestic corn. In 2025, domestic corn imports will sharply decrease. From January to November 2025, China will import 1.85 million tons of corn and corn flour, a year-on-year decrease of 11.47 million tons, or 86%; From January to November 2025, China's wheat imports amounted to 3.4 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 70%; From January to November 2025, China imported a total of 9.81 million tons of barley, a year-on-year decrease of 3.66 million tons or 27.2%; From January to November 2025, China imported a total of 4.5 million tons of sorghum, a year-on-year decrease of 3.79 million tons or 45.7%; The import volume of corn and its substitutes will decrease comprehensively in 2025 compared to 2024. The sharp decline in imports will greatly optimize the supply and demand relationship in the domestic corn market, and also significantly reduce the impact of external markets, which will help stabilize the price of domestically produced corn in 2026. It is expected that this trend will continue in 2026, and domestic corn imports will continue to be strictly controlled within tariff quotas, making it difficult to effectively supplement domestic supply. The extremely low import dependence means that the pricing of the domestic corn market will be more determined by internal supply and demand.

Supply side: According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the domestic corn planting area will reach 674 million mu in 2025, an increase of 3.301 million mu or 0.5% compared to the previous year, with a significant increase for three consecutive years. The domestic corn yield was 446.7 kg/mu, an increase of 7.2 kg or 1.6% compared to the previous year. Supported by the continuous increase in corn planting area and the sustained rise in corn yield, domestic corn production will continue to be abundant in 2025, with a total of approximately 301 million tons, an increase of 2.1% year-on-year. The annual high yield of corn, coupled with the issuance of genetically modified corn production licenses, is expected to continue increasing domestic corn production in 2026. It is expected that the national corn production in 2026 will be about 303 million tons (606 billion jin), a year-on-year increase of about 0.6%. Affected by the price downturn for three consecutive years in Northeast China, the willingness of corn planting may decline slightly. However, thanks to the potential of yield increase and the guidance of rotation policy, the planting area in North China Plain, Xinjiang and other regions is expected to be supplemented. The overall planting area of domestic corn will remain stable in 2026. If the climate in the main production areas is normal by 2026, coupled with optimized planting techniques, the domestic corn yield is expected to continue its growth trend of around 1%. Taking into account the above factors, the supply of domestic corn market will continue to be loose in 2026, which will exert a certain pressure on the high point of domestic corn market prices in 2026. It is expected that the high point of domestic corn average price in 2026 will be difficult to exceed 2,400 RMB/ton.

International supply side: The global corn production pattern is likely to continue in 2025/26, with the three major producing countries (the United States, Brazil, and Argentina) having better water and heat conditions during the planting period, resulting in a significant year-on-year increase in yield. The expected corn production in the United States is 425 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%; Argentina's production increased to 53 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%; Ukraine's production has achieved a recovery growth, reaching 30.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%. The total global corn production is expected to remain at a high level of around 1.28 billion tons. The overall high yield expectation for corn in the world is relatively high, and the overall supply of corn in the world market will remain relatively loose in 2026.

In terms of feed consumption, the domestic egg prices will continue to bottom out after a significant decline in 2025, with a significant decrease of 33.68% during the year. The price of live pigs will continue to bottom out and fluctuate slightly, with an overall decline of 22.84% during the year. In 2020, the domestic breeding industry will enter a loss making situation, and the enthusiasm of farmers to replenish their stocks will continue to be low. Especially now that domestic live pigs and laying hens have entered a production capacity reduction cycle, it may have a certain contraction effect on the total demand for feed in 2026. It is expected that the overall corn feed consumption in 2026 will show a stable and slightly declining trend, and the positive effect of corn feed demand on the domestic corn market price support in 2026 will be limited.

In terms of demand for deep processing, the national corn deep processing capacity has exceeded 125 million tons and is still growing, with a corn consumption of approximately 78 million tons by 2025. Affected by poor product profits, the operating rate of the domestic corn starch industry in 2025 is expected to be at a low level in nearly four years, and it is expected that the overall growth space for domestic starch corn demand in 2026 will be limited. With the strong support of national policies for industries such as biomanufacturing, the newly added production capacity will gradually be released in 2026, and the market demand for main products such as alcohols and amino acids will remain stable. In addition, the sustained low price of domestic corn will make the export competitiveness of deep processed products strong. The demand for corn deep processing will continue to maintain stable growth in 2026, and it is expected that the domestic corn industry consumption for the whole year of 2026 will be about 80 million tons. The sustained demand for deep processing of corn will provide some favorable support for domestic corn prices in 2026.

Policy wise: In 2025, the central government will continue to provide subsidies for corn producers and subsidies for strip intercropping of soybeans and corn. It is highly likely that these policies will continue to be implemented in 2026 to ensure the enthusiasm for planting in major production areas. At the same time, the government will continue to strengthen measures such as production and sales linkage, reserve regulation, etc. to ensure stable production and supply. When prices fluctuate significantly or when reserve grain is launched/purchased, market expectations will be stabilized. The import policy will still be guided by "moderate imports and ensuring safety", and quota management and customs supervision will remain normalized to avoid excessive impact of imports on the domestic market.

2026 Corn Price Forecast

The corn product analyst of SunSirs believes that domestic corn production will continue to increase in 2026, imports will remain at an extremely low level, and the overall supply and demand pattern of the domestic corn market will continue to be loose. The overall suppression effect of international corn prices on domestic production is limited in the context of global high yields. At present, domestic pigs and laying hens have entered a period of overcapacity reduction. There will be a certain decline in the demand for corn feed in 2026, but the demand for corn deep processing will not decrease in 2026. The downstream demand for corn in China will remain stable with a slight increase overall.

The planting cost, low import supply structure, and the bottom support purchase policy of China Grain Reserves Corporation will jointly build a solid bottom for domestic corn prices. The downstream aquaculture industry is generally losing money, and the profits of deep processing enterprises are meager, which will suppress the upward space of corn prices. At the same time, the price of substitutes such as wheat has always been the "ceiling" of corn prices. Overall, the core operating range of corn prices in 2026 may be between 2,000-2,400 RMB/ton, showing a fluctuating pattern with a top and a bottom.

Based on seasonal supply and demand characteristics, the price forecast intervals for each quarter of 2026 are divided as follows:

First quarter (January March): In the late stage of winter grain sales, surplus grain at the grassroots level is gradually decreasing, coupled with the impact of low-temperature rain and snow weather in the north on logistics transportation. After the Spring Festival, downstream feed enterprises' demand for replenishment is released. Supported by many favorable factors, the overall price of corn in the domestic market will fluctuate strongly, and it is expected to operate in the range of 2,250-2,350 RMB/ton.

Second quarter (April June): Entering the traditional off-season for consumption, with the progress of grain sales advancing, grassroots grain sources are concentrated on the market, and supply pressure is evident. Domestic corn supply and demand have entered a loose stage, and corn prices have returned to the range of oscillation, with an expected operating range of 2,100-2,250 RMB/ton.

Third quarter (July September): a critical period of transition between new and old crops, coupled with the arrival of the peak season for downstream feed and deep processing demand, prices may rise again, with an expected operating range of 2,250-2,400 RMB/ton.

Fourth quarter (October December): The new season of corn is concentrated on the market, and the supply pressure is gradually increasing. The price is expected to first suppress and then rise. In the early stage, it will fluctuate and fall with the progress of grain sales, and in the later stage, it will gradually stabilize and rebound with the decrease of surplus grain and policy support. The expected operating range is 2,200-2,350 RMB/ton. The annual price range is roughly the same as in 2025.

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