According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the overall domestic pig prices will continue to decline weakly in 2025. Before the Spring Festival, the prices were in the range of 15-16 RMB/kg and fluctuated forward. From March to June, the prices gradually fell to the range of 14-15 RMB/kg. Although there was a slight rebound in the middle of the year, they weakened again afterwards, especially after accelerating their decline in September. In December, the prices have "halved" by nearly one-third compared to the beginning of the year. The price of live pigs for the whole year continued to decline from the high point of 16.27 RMB/kg on January 8th to the low point of 11.35 RMB/kg at the end of the year on December 10th, with a decline of more than 30% during the year.

Review of Domestic Pig Market Price Trends in 2025

High level decline stage at the beginning of the year (January March): Weakening support during the Spring Festival and beginning of supply pressure

Supported by the traditional peak consumption season of the Spring Festival, domestic pig prices remained relatively high in January, and the average price of domestic and foreign three RMB pigs remained stable in the range of 15-16 RMB/kg. Before the Spring Festival, the demand for centralized household procurement and catering stocking reached a high point of 16.17 RMB/kg for the year. In March, the off-season for consumption began, and the purchasing willingness of slaughter enterprises continued to decline. In addition, the national pig inventory reached 417 million heads in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. Supply pressure was gradually released, and the willingness of farmers to concentrate on selling pigs increased. Domestic pig prices began the first round of decline.

Mid year accelerated downward phase (April November): Strong supply, weak demand, intensified price volatility, and bottoming out

In the second quarter, domestic pig prices entered a slow downward trend, with the average price gradually falling to 14-15 RMB/kg. The market presents the characteristics of "weak supply and demand": on the demand side, the overall weakness of meat consumption is caused by the rise in domestic temperatures, the recovery of the catering industry is not as expected, and pork procurement continues to decline; On the supply side, the inventory of breeding sows remains at a high level of over 40 million heads (40.43 million heads at the end of the second quarter), and the pattern of oversupply has not changed. After a slight rebound in June, pig prices weakened again. From July to September, due to the continued loose supply in the pig market and sluggish demand in the terminal meat market, the pressure of strong supply and weak demand in the market continued to intensify, and domestic pig prices entered an accelerated decline range. From October to November, prices continued to be sluggish, with the average domestic pig price dropping to 11.35 RMB/kg on December 10th, hitting a low for the whole year. Although the national breeding sow inventory dropped to 39.9 million at the end of October, returning to below 40 million after 17 months, it still exceeds the normal inventory of 39 million, and the supply pressure has not been fundamentally relieved. In November, the amount of cured meat used in southern China decreased by about 10% compared to the same period in previous years, and the consumer side's support for prices was extremely limited. Domestic pig prices continued to decline weakly.

End of year bottoming out and rebounding stage (December): supply and demand margins have improved, and prices have slightly rebounded

Entering mid December, large-scale pig enterprises completed their year-end rush in mid to early December, and their slaughter plans were basically completed. They generally adopted the strategy of "reducing quantity and increasing price" to reduce market supply. At the same time, many parts of the country experienced widespread snowfall due to the cold wave in December, which greatly increased the difficulty of exporting live pigs. Coupled with the approaching New Year's Day, the operating rate of slaughterhouses has increased. In terms of policies, the "Management Measures for Incentive Funds for Pig Transfer out of Large Counties" revised by the Ministry of Finance on December 1 officially came into effect. Starting from December 17, anti-dumping duties were levied on imported pork and by-products from the European Union. Supported by many favorable factors, domestic pig prices rebounded slightly.

Analysis of Factors Influencing Pig Prices in 2026

In 2025, the overall Chinese pig market will exhibit characteristics of "strong supply and weak demand, low prices, and intensified losses". Based on the changing trend and policy regulation direction of sow inventory in 2025, the reduction of pig production capacity will accelerate in 2026, but there is still uncertainty in the process. In 2026, domestic pig prices will continue to be affected by a combination of factors such as changes in inventory levels, terminal market demand, breeding and feeding costs, piglet costs, national policies, and weather.

Changes in the inventory of breeding sows

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, by the end of October 2025, the total number of breeding sows in China was 39.9 million (equivalent to 102.3% of the normal inventory, with normal production capacity and in the green zone), a decrease of 1.1% month on month and 2.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 900,000 from the high point at the end of last year, and returning to below 40 million after 17 months. The pig price continues to operate at a low level, and the continuous loss of the pig breeding industry will accelerate the withdrawal of farmers to a certain extent. In addition, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has asked 25 leading enterprises to reduce 1 million capable sows by the end of January 2026. According to the capacity control goal of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the current pace of de industrialization, it is expected that the stock of capable sows will continue to decline in 2026. It is expected that by the end of 2025, there will be 39-39.5 million sows in stock, slightly higher than the normal inventory; By the end of the first quarter of 2026, it is expected to decrease to 38.5-39 million heads, approaching the lower limit of normal inventory; By the end of the second quarter, it is expected to drop to 38-38.5 million heads, entering a reasonable range; At the end of the third quarter, it is expected to maintain an overall range of 38-38.5 million pigs, and may drop to 37.5-38 million pigs by the end of the fourth quarter to achieve production capacity regulation. At that time, the supply pressure in the domestic pig market will continue to decrease, which will provide some support for the domestic pig price schedule in 2026.

Pig slaughter situation

In November 2025, the number of pigs slaughtered by designated slaughter enterprises above designated size in China reached 39.57 million, an increase of 3.2% month on month, marking the highest slaughter volume this year for five consecutive months. The cumulative slaughter volume from January to November 2025 was 362.46 million heads, an increase of 19.3%, which has exceeded the annual slaughter volume of the previous four years. In the first three quarters of 2025, 529.9 million pigs were slaughtered, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with a growth rate 1.2% higher than the first half of the year; The domestic pork production in the first three quarters of 2025 was 43.68 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%; It is expected that the annual output will be 52-53 million tons, which is basically the same as 2024. In 2025, the domestic pig market supply will continue to be sufficient, and the demand for terminal meat market will remain sluggish. In the short term, the pressure of strong supply and weak demand in the domestic pig market will be difficult to alleviate, and domestic pig prices will continue to be under pressure.

Adjustment of aquaculture structure

At the same time as the total production capacity is reduced, the optimization of aquaculture structure will be promoted simultaneously. In recent years, the domestic pig slaughter volume has been at a relatively high level. Data shows that from January to November 2025, 23 listed pig enterprises slaughtered 187 million pigs in the first 11 months, accounting for about 26% of the national slaughter volume. The top three, MuRMB, Wenshi, and New Hope, accounted for over 60% of the total. The scale of the domestic pig breeding industry continues to develop. By 2025, the proportion of large-scale breeding farms with an annual output of over 500 heads in China will exceed 70%, an increase of over 20% compared to 2020. It is expected that the proportion of large-scale breeding will continue to increase in 2026; The number of large-scale breeding farms with an annual output of over 10,000 heads will continue to increase; The continuous loss of pig prices will accelerate the exit of small and medium-sized farmers, and the industry concentration will further increase. The layout of domestic pig production capacity will be more reasonable, with production capacity in the main production and sales areas tending to balance, reducing long-distance transportation costs. Large scale breeding enterprises have strong advantages in risk resistance, breeding costs, and supply chain. The continuous increase in scale will have a certain stabilizing effect on the domestic pig cycle wave, and the overall fluctuation of pig prices will weaken in 2026.

Cost situation of pig farming

Thanks to the promotion and application of new technologies, the proportion of pig feed cost to total breeding cost in 2025 has gradually decreased from the traditional 70% to around 52% -65%. In 2025, the overall domestic corn price fluctuated upward, rising by 10.52% during the year, but slightly lower than the corn price in 2024, and overall located in the lower range of four years. The price of soybean meal has surged and rebounded within the year, with a slight fluctuation and strong operation. It has risen by 9.35% within the year, and overall, the price has also decreased compared to 2024. Compared with historical annual prices, the domestic soybean meal price in 2025 is also in the lower range of four years. Overall, although there will be a slight increase in feed raw material prices in 2025, the overall situation is still at a low level in recent years. Some top breeding enterprises can control the cost of pig farming within 12 RMB/kg in 2025, while the cost for small and medium-sized farmers is generally higher than 14 RMB/kg. The reduction in feed costs will significantly increase the risk resistance ability of breeding enterprises.

Import and export situation

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's pork exports in November 2025 were 5300 tons, an increase of 20.7% month on month and 116.9% year-on-year, reaching a new high in recent years. From January to November, the cumulative export of pork was 38,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 57.8%. It is expected that the annual export volume of pork will reach 40,000 to 50,000 tons. In November 2025, China imported 60,800 tons of pork, a month on month decrease of 14.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 34.3%, reaching a new low for the year. From January to November, the cumulative import of pork was 919,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%. It is expected that the annual import volume of pork will remain at around 1 million tons, a decrease of about 15% compared to 2024. Domestic pig exports have little impact on domestic pig prices. Due to sufficient domestic pork supply and obvious price advantages, coupled with restrictions on pork imports in some countries, especially in the context of sustained low domestic pig prices, the price competitiveness of imported pork has further declined. It is expected that the domestic pork import volume will be around 1.1 million tons in 2026, and the impact of a small amount of pork imports on the domestic pig market price is limited.

The impact of storage policies

When the pig to grain ratio is below 6:1, the country will activate the pig market warning mechanism. When the pig to grain ratio is below 5:1, the country generally activates the pig storage mechanism. By 2025, 3,100 tons of frozen pork have been stored, and by 2026, the domestic meat market price will still be supported by policies to form a bottom line.

other factors

In recent years, influenced by the concept of healthy diet, the proportion of meat, especially pork, in daily table meals has gradually decreased. The proportion of pork in residents' meat consumption has dropped from 62% to 55%, with poultry replacing about 4%, beef and mutton replacing about 2%, and aquatic and other substitutes replacing about 1%. The rapid development of the meat substitute market in 2025 will continue to further suppress the domestic pig market prices. In the first three quarters of 2025, the domestic poultry meat production was 20.53 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. The proportion of poultry meat in household meat consumption increased from 27% in 2020 to 32%, becoming the second largest meat consumer product after pork. The price advantage of poultry meat is obvious, and the average price of white feathered broiler chickens is much lower than that of pork, with an increasing share in catering channels and household consumption. The estimated domestic production of aquatic products in 2025 is 74.42 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, and a consumption growth of 3.0%. The high protein and low-fat characteristics are in line with the trend of healthy consumption. Overall, substitutes account for over 40% of meat consumption, forming a comprehensive competition for pork.

In addition, weather factors such as frequent rainfall in summer and frequent snowfall in winter will also have a certain impact on domestic pig prices. The export of pigs will be hindered, and pig prices in production areas will be suppressed. Pig prices in sales areas will be supported due to tight supply. The epidemic factors will also have a certain impact on pig prices. The epidemic will accelerate the slaughter of pigs in surrounding areas, and the increase in supply in the pig market will exert a certain pressure on local pig prices.

Prediction of Domestic Pig Price Range in 2026

The analyst of SunSirs's pig products believes that, taking into account factors such as supply and demand fundamentals, cost support, and policy regulation, the overall trend of pig prices in 2026 will show a "low in the beginning and high in the end", and the average price for the whole year is expected to slightly rebound compared to 2025.

First quarter (January to March): Low bottoming period. Affected by the concentrated slaughter before the Spring Festival and the off-season consumption after the holiday, it is expected that the price of live pigs will continue to operate at a low level in the first quarter. The price may fall to within 11 RMB/kg in January, hitting a new low for the year; In February, briefly boosted by the Spring Festival effect, prices rebounded to around 12 RMB/kg; In March, it entered the off-season for consumption again, and prices fell back to the range of 11-11.5 RMB/kg.

Second quarter (April June): bottoming out and stabilizing period. With the gradual manifestation of the de fertilization effect on breeding sows, the supply pressure will be alleviated to some extent. The price fluctuated between 11.5-12.5 RMB/kg in April; The overall price of live pigs in May is expected to fluctuate between 11.5-12.5 RMB/kg; The price of live pigs is expected to reach the range of 12.5-13.0 RMB/kg in June.

Third quarter (July September): a period of market recovery. Under the influence of the elimination of breeding sows in the early stage, the supply of live pigs in the market has significantly contracted. Prices are expected to rebound comprehensively in July, with pig prices expected to exceed 14 RMB/kg; The overall price in August fluctuated around 14 RMB/kg; The supply relationship has been effectively improved in September, and the supply-demand game will weaken. Domestic pig prices may reach 14.5-15.5 RMB/kg.

Fourth quarter (October December): a period of high volatility. The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for consumption, and prices are expected to remain relatively high. The price fluctuated around 15.0 RMB/kg in October; Driven by the demand for cured meat in the south in November, prices may reach the range of 15.5-16.5 RMB/kg. With the peak of slaughter at the end of December, domestic pig prices will fluctuate and fall back to the range of 15.0-15.5 RMB/kg.

Summary

The main theme of the domestic pig market in 2025 is strong supply and weak demand, low prices, and industry losses. Although the inventory of breeding sows has returned to below 40 million by the end of October, overall supply pressure still exists. The price of live pigs has dropped from around 16 RMB/kg at the beginning of the year to around 11 RMB/kg at the end of the year, and the breeding industry has entered a comprehensive loss situation. The weak growth of consumer demand and the obvious diversion effect of substitutes pose severe challenges to traditional consumption patterns.

Looking ahead to 2026, the domestic pig market will usher in an important turning point. The process of capacity reduction is accelerating, and it is expected that the number of sows that can be bred will decrease to around 37.5-38 million by the end of 2026; The price trend shows a characteristic of initially low and then high, and domestic pig prices are expected to rebound to the level of 16.5 RMB/kg in the fourth quarter; The supply-demand relationship has shifted from severe surplus to basic balance, and there may be tight balance in some periods; The consumption structure continues to optimize, with strong demand for high-end products and deep processed products.

Overall, China's pig industry is in a critical period of transition from old to new driving forces, and 2026 will be a turning point for the future. With the implementation of capacity reduction, upgrading of consumption structure, and breakthroughs in technological innovation, the industry is expected to usher in a new growth cycle in the second half of 2026. But this process will not be smooth sailing, and requires joint efforts from all parties in the market to seek opportunities in the process of change and achieve win-win results in competition.

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