Winter typically marks the peak season for pork consumption, with prices gradually rising. However, this year the market has failed to gain momentum during this crucial period. What factors are driving the downward pressure on pork prices?

It is currently the season for southern regions to prepare cured meats and sausages, yet many consumers are significantly reducing their purchases.

According to pork retailers, current prices for pork belly hover around RMB9 per jin (0.5 kg), while front and hind leg cuts are priced at approximately RMB 8 per jin. This represents a RMB 3-4 per jin decrease compared to the same period last year, yet sales volumes remain below last year's levels.

Slaughter volumes have also declined significantly.

Industry insiders note that slower temperature drops in southern regions have dampened demand for cured meats. Additionally, the relatively late timing of next year's Spring Festival has delayed some bulk purchasing, limiting consumer support for pork prices.

Meanwhile, supply-side pressures persist. High profitability in hog farming over the past two years has driven industry capacity expansion. Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that by the end of the third quarter of 2025, the national hog inventory reached 437 million head, a 2.3% year-on-year increase. Nationwide hog slaughter reached 530 million head in the first three quarters, up 1.8% year-on-year. By the end of October 2025, the national breeding sow inventory stood at 39.9 million head, falling below 40 million head for the first time in 17 months but still exceeding the normal inventory level of 39 million head.

As of December 19, the average daily hog slaughter volume at sampled enterprises in December reached 211,200 head, a year-on-year increase of 0.37%, indicating a relatively limited growth in slaughter volume. The earlier relatively high breeding sow inventory corresponds to the current ample hog supply. Concurrently, the breeding sector is in the year-end production surge phase, further boosting hog supply.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on December 25th, the benchmark price for live pigs, according to SunSirs, was 11.67 RMB/kg, an increase of 1.21% compared to the beginning of the month (11.53 RMB/kg).

Application of SunSirs Benchmark Pricing：

Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

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