New Crop Launch and Import Pressure Compound

The domestic white sugar market currently faces a weakening trend characterized by sluggish supply and demand, pessimistic sentiment, and price pressures. The concentrated launch of new crop sugar, rapid inventory accumulation, and sustained high import volumes collectively form the core factors suppressing market prices. Specifically, domestic production has fully transitioned into the 2025/2026 new crushing season. As of the week ending December 19, sugar mills in major domestic production areas have largely commenced operations. All 26 mills in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have started production, alongside 31 in Yunnan and 68 in Guangxi, continuously supplying new sugar to the market. Cumulative sugar production for the current season has reached 413,400 metric tons, but cumulative sales stand at only 91,600 metric tons. Industrial inventories have rapidly climbed to 321,800 metric tons. Supply pressure in the spot market continues to intensify, forcing sugar mills in major producing regions like Guangxi and Yunnan to reduce their quoted prices by 70 to 130 yuan per ton. As of the week ending December 19, white sugar prices in Guangxi fell by 100 yuan/ton to 5,250 yuan/ton, while prices in Yunnan dropped by 120 yuan/ton to 5,180 yuan/ton. Regarding imports, although November 2025 saw a single-month sugar import volume of 440,000 tons, a 17.51% year-on-year decrease, the cumulative import volume for the 2025/2026 crushing season has reached 1,186,200 tons, a 9.77% year-on-year increase. The import profit window remains open. Processing profits for quota-based sugar using Brazilian raw sugar as feedstock stand at 1,794 yuan/ton, while non-quota profits reach 701 yuan/ton, intensifying competition between imported and domestically produced sugar. As international sugar prices decline, import costs decrease, and the impact of low-priced imported sugar on the domestic market warrants continued attention. Overall, the domestic supply side is currently in a peak supply period marked by the transition between the old and new crushing seasons, with both new domestic sugar and imported sugar sources overlapping. During the concentrated launch phase of new sugar, the supply surplus will continue to suppress sugar prices. Additionally, weak demand struggles to absorb the massive supply pressure, reinforcing expectations of inventory accumulation and becoming a key factor dragging down the market. End-users are increasingly adopting a wait-and-see attitude, with low purchasing willingness and a widespread strategy of low inventory procurement based on immediate needs. Spot market transactions remain thin, failing to provide effective price support. With inventory pressure rapidly accumulating and production-to-sales ratios remaining low, the burden of stockpiles directly manifests as downward pressure on white sugar spot prices. Against the backdrop of no signs of demand recovery and the ongoing release of new sugar supply pressure, high inventories will continue to weigh on prices.

Market Lacks Bullish Drivers

Overall, both domestic and international white sugar markets have weakened recently, driven primarily by the dual pressures of severe global supply surplus and persistently weak domestic demand. The significant global supply glut has kept ICE raw sugar futures under sustained pressure. Domestically, the new crushing season has commenced nationwide, with new sugar entering the market in concentrated volumes. End-users are procuring only as needed, leading to rapid accumulation of industrial inventories. Amidst supply-demand imbalances and prevailing pessimism, the market lacks bullish catalysts, and sugar prices are expected to remain weak in the near term.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on December 25th, the SunSirs' benchmark price for sugar was 5326.67 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.03% compared to the beginning of the month (5493.33 RMB/ton).

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