According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price trend of wood pulp in 2025 will present a complex and changing situation. Under the influence of factors such as supply and demand, cost fluctuations, and policy adjustments, the price trend will repeatedly tug at war. As of December 30th, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong region was 5,633.33 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 11.98%; On December 30th, the average market price of hardwood pulp in Shandong region was 4,683.33 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 1.59%.

Review of Market Trends in 2025

In the first half of the year, prices first rose and then fell, with the center of gravity shifting downwards. In January, driven by the rise in external markets and downstream demand for replenishment, the prices of coniferous and broad-leaved pulp increased to varying degrees. In addition, downstream industries began to prepare for the Spring Festival, and the trading center of the pulp market shifted upward; From February to June, global economic growth expectations weakened, post holiday demand recovery slowed, port inventories continued to accumulate, and pulp prices fell rapidly. The prices of coniferous and broad-leaved pulp both fell significantly, and the market entered a low season. In addition, the continued escalation of the tariff war has exerted pressure on the global market due to trade frictions, causing significant disruptions to China's imported wood pulp spot market and exacerbating the downward trend in prices, resulting in more periods of decline in pulp prices in the first half of the year.

In the second half of the year, the prices of coniferous and broad-leaved pulp tend to go against each other, and the price difference between the two is gradually narrowing. The supply of coniferous pulp in the market is relatively loose, and domestic port inventories continue to remain high and slowly digested. The follow-up of terminal orders is weak, and downstream factories generally maintain a rigid demand attitude towards the procurement of raw material slurry, resulting in sustained low price fluctuations. Due to the impact of some overseas pulp factories reducing production, restricting production, and changing production, the market supply of broad-leaved pulp has become tight. In addition, the continuous increase in the price of broad-leaved pulp in the external market has provided strong bottom support for import costs, causing prices to shift from low to high. After entering November, with the expected increase in external costs and the recovery of futures market sentiment, the spot prices of coniferous and broad-leaved pulp fluctuated and surged.

Limited supply side growth in 2026

1. The growth rate of overseas production capacity has slowed down

In 2025, the average annual growth rate of global pulp production capacity will be about 1.8%, with broad-leaved pulp and chemical pulp being the main sources of new capacity, and needle pulp increasing slightly. However, in 2026, the pace of global pulp production capacity expansion will significantly slow down, with fewer large-scale overseas production capacity projects. The structure will still be dominated by broad-leaved pulp, and it is expected that the annual pace will be low in the beginning and high in the end.

2. Impact of Capacity Reduction and Shutdown

Affected by factors such as low pulp prices and high costs, some high cost areas have experienced reduced production, conversion or shutdown of wood pulp production capacity. In the field of coniferous pulp, some pulp mills in Canada, Finland and other places have announced extended downtime for coniferous pulp maintenance or permanent closure of production capacity. In the field of broad-leaved pulp: Bracell, a Brazilian company, announced the conversion of a broad-leaved pulp production line with an annual output of 1.5 million tons to a dissolving pulp production line, with an expected reduction of 600,000 tons of broad-leaved pulp production by 2026.

3. The growth rate of wood pulp imports slows down

In 2025, China's wood pulp imports will show the characteristics of "total volume growth, price pressure, and concentrated sources", with stable recovery of coniferous pulp and high growth of broad-leaved pulp. The cumulative import volume of coniferous pulp from January to November 2025 was 7.847 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%; The cumulative import volume of broad-leaved pulp from January to November was 15.59 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%. Looking ahead to 2026, the marginal relief of shipping pressure for overseas coniferous pulp may be affected by the reduction and shutdown of some pulp factories, and the import volume may be limited. However, some broadleaf pulp factories have reduced production or shifted production to alleviate supply pressure, and the expected shipping volume is expected to remain stable, reducing their dependence on the Chinese market.

4. The pressure of domestic pulp supply is prominent

Currently, China's pulp production capacity continues to expand, with plans to add over 2 million tons of chemical pulp production capacity by 2026. Although some production capacity may be delayed until 2027, with the gradual release of new production capacity, the supply of domestic pulp will continue to grow, which will form a certain substitution for imported pulp.

Moderate recovery of wood pulp demand in 2026

In 2026, the domestic demand for wood pulp is expected to continue a moderate growth trend, driven mainly by the continued prosperity of specialty paper, the deepening substitution effect of high-end packaging paper, and the continuous promotion of upgrading the quality of household paper. At the same time, due to factors such as weak demand for cultural paper and the substitution of recycled pulp, the growth rate is difficult to significantly increase, and the overall trend is characterized by "stable total volume and optimized structure".

1. Household paper: Quality upgrade drives demand for broad-leaved pulp

The current demand for household paper such as hygiene products and kitchen paper continues to rise, directly driving a significant increase in the consumption of broad-leaved pulp and becoming the core contributor to the increase in wood pulp demand. It is expected that the growth rate of pulp demand in the household paper field will be 5% -8% by 2026, becoming an important force driving pulp demand.

2. Cultural paper: Bottom stabilization, structural differentiation

Affected by electronic reading, the overall demand growth for cultural paper is weak. However, double adhesive paper has achieved bottom stabilization with rigid demand for textbooks and teaching aids, while copperplate paper relies on export marginal improvement to alleviate domestic pressure. This field provides stable support for the demand for coniferous pulp. It is expected that the pulp demand in the cultural paper field may slightly increase or remain stable by 2026, and some production capacity may shift to other paper types.

3. High end packaging paper: policy and logistics drive high growth

Driven by the deepening implementation of the "plastic ban" and the rapid development of e-commerce and logistics industries, there is a strong demand for high-end packaging paper. The demand for high-purity broad-leaved pulp in the food packaging industry has significantly increased; E-commerce packaging will drive the demand for the combination of some chemical pulp and broad-leaved pulp, and it is expected that the growth rate of pulp demand in the packaging paper field will be 4% -6% by 2026.

4. Specialty paper: leading the industry in the high prosperity track

The high-end specialty paper market, including medical paper, lithium battery separator substrate, and decorative base paper, continues to thrive, with growth rates leading the entire industry. Special paper has high requirements for the quality of wood pulp, which not only drives the consumption of coniferous pulp, but also generates customized demand for special broad-leaved pulp and high-yield pulp, becoming an important force in promoting the upgrading of wood pulp demand structure.

In summary, the domestic wood pulp supply in 2026 will show the characteristics of "slow total growth and obvious structural differentiation". The slowdown in overseas new production capacity, production capacity reduction, and increased downtime will to some extent alleviate supply pressure; However, factors such as the expansion of domestic pulp production capacity and the adjustment of import volume may still exert supply pressure on the market. The demand for wood pulp is expected to moderately recover in 2026, but there are significant differences in demand among different regions and fields. In the medium to long term, the integration of forestry, pulp and paper and the deepening of the substitution effect of paper-based materials will promote the continuous optimization of the supply and demand pattern of the wood pulp industry, and the industry's prosperity is expected to gradually improve. It is expected that the industry will enter the traditional off-season after the Spring Festival in the first quarter, and paper mills will mainly focus on destocking, resulting in relatively flat demand for wood pulp. Affected by the late Spring Festival, the replenishment cycle will continue until February, and overall demand will remain stable or slightly increase year-on-year. Prices may remain strong and fluctuate within a certain range.

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