Price trend:

According to data from SunSirs' nickel price monitoring, nickel prices rose initially last week before falling. By the end of the week, the spot nickel price was 118,633.33 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.47% compared to the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 8.53%.

According to data from SunSirs, over the past 12 weeks, nickel prices fell for 7 weeks and rose for 5 weeks, with a slight decline in recent weeks.

Market Analysis

On February 11th, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the third time this year, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.5%-3.75%, and sent a "dovish but cautious" signal. The Fed also announced the launch of a $40 billion short-term Treasury bond purchase program, expected to inject approximately $55 billion in liquidity into the financial system, further lowering real interest rates and stimulating capital inflows into commodity markets.

Regarding the news, Indonesian President Prabowo was intensifying his crackdown on the mining sector. The latest measure involves imposing hefty fines on mining companies operating illegally outside their forest permits. The fines will be determined based on the number of years of violation and the type of commodities mined, with nickel mining companies facing the most severe penalties.

Supply side: From January to October 2025, Indonesia's nickel production increased significantly by 16.7% year-on-year. In recent years, Indonesia has attracted substantial investment through its "downstream development" strategy, accelerating the establishment of smelting capacity and continuously releasing increased supply to the global market. The domestic market also showed a trend of capacity expansion, with refined nickel production increasing by as much as 21.8% year-on-year during the same period.

On the demand side, both major core areas of demand showed weakness. The traditional main consumer, the stainless steel industry, exhibited a "weak peak season" trend. Demand recovery in downstream industries such as real estate and machinery fell short of expectations, leading to low purchasing intentions among stainless steel companies and limiting their ability to absorb nickel raw materials. The new energy battery sector also failed to provide effective support; although the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow, the growth in nickel demand for batteries did not meet market expectations.

Market Forecast:

In summary, the global nickel surplus is unlikely to change fundamentally, and the contradiction between increased supply and weak demand will persist. The growing expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve was providing support for nickel prices from a financial perspective. Indonesia's nickel mining and smelting sectors had established a significant cost advantage; when prices approach or fall below the cost line, some smaller producers may reduce output, thus providing natural support for prices. Therefore, nickel prices are expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.