Market trends 

The silicomanganese market remained relatively stable last week. Although futures prices rebounded somewhat, spot prices remained low, resulting in manufacturers operating at a loss and experiencing sluggish sales, leading to significant social inventory pressure. According to data from SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, the market price of silicomanganese (FeMN68Si18 specification) in Ningxia was around 5,420-5,500 RMB/ton at the end of last week, with an average market price of 5,490.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.29% compared to the previous week.

Influencing factors

On the supply side: No new iron producd by the new production capacity had been added in Inner Mongolia last week. One or two alloy plants may start production this month, but the specifics depend on market conditions. Some alloy plants had also switched to producing other products. December output is not expected to fluctuate significantly. Some plants in Ningxia were undergoing maintenance, resulting in significant cost and financial pressure.

Southern factories were experiencing a continued decline in operating rates, and some operating factories still had maintenance plans, leaving room for further output reductions. Factories were facing significant losses and were adopting a wait-and-see approach. According to a Guangxi factory, spot electricity prices rose last week, reaching 0.4 RMB/kWh for a single shift, squeezing production profits and reducing factory production enthusiasm. Some factories anticipated future production cuts. Operating rates in Yunnan and Guizhou had already fallen to low levels, leaving little room for further production cuts, and the probability of resuming production in the short term is low.

According to statistics, the operating rate of silicomanganese enterprises nationwide last week was 36.85%, an increase of 0.14% compared to the week before last; the average daily output was 27,035 tons, an increase of 185 tons.

According to incomplete statistics, as of December 12th, the national inventory of silicomanganese enterprises was 381,000 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons compared to the previous period. Among them, Inner Mongolia had 63,500 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons; Ningxia had 285,500 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons; Guangxi had 12,000 tons, a decrease of 500 tons; Guizhou had 6,500 tons, a decrease of 500 tons; (Shanxi, Gansu, and Shaanxi) had 6,500 tons, a decrease of 500 tons; and (Sichuan, Yunnan, and Chongqing) had 7,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons.

Upstream costs: The manganese ore market remained firm and stable last week. South African ore prices were relatively stable due to high inventory levels, limiting price increases. Oxide ore saw moderate buying activity last week, with prices not rising further and remaining in a high-level fluctuation. As of December 12, Australian manganese ore at Tianjin Port was quoted at 41.5-44.5 RMB/MTU, semi-carbonated manganese ore at 34.5 RMB/MTU, and Gabonese manganese ore at 43-44 RMB/MTU.

Manganese ore prices at Qinzhou Port remained stable with fluctuations. High-grade oxide ore lumps and South African iron ore lumps were in concentrated supply, keeping prices high and firm. Australian manganese ore lumps at Qinzhou Port were quoted at 40.5-42 RMB/MTU, semi-carbonated manganese ore at 36.5 RMB/MTU, and Gabonese ore lumps at 41-41.5 RMB/MTU.

On the international market, South32 announced its January 2026 offer for South African semi-carbonate lump ore (typical value, Mn 36.9%) at $4.15/MTU, unchanged from the previous month; Australian lump ore (typical value, Mn 42%) was offered at $4.85/MTU, up $0.3/MTU from the previous month. Jupiter announced its January 2026 manganese ore loading price to China: South African semi-carbonate lump ore (Mn 36.5% (typical value)) was quoted at $4.15/MTU, up $0.05/MTU from the previous month.

On the demand side: Hebei Iron & Steel Group's December ferrosilicon tender price was 5,770 RMB/ton (acceptance), up 70 RMB/ton from the inquiry price, and down 50 RMB/ton from the November price (5,820 RMB/ton); the purchase quantity was 14,700 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons month-on-month and an increase of 1,100 tons year-on-year.

A steel mill in Jiangsu province had tendered for silicomanganese at a price of 5,750 RMB/ton, with a purchase quantity of 8,000 tons, payable by acceptance bill, including tax and delivered to the factory, with a basis discount. Another steel mill in Jiangsu province had tendered for silicomanganese at a price of 5,748 RMB/ton, with a purchase quantity of 3,000 tons, payable by acceptance bill, including tax and delivered to the factory. A steel mill in Fujian province had tendered for silicomanganese alloy at a price of 5,697 RMB/ton, payable in half acceptance bill and half cash, with a basis discount.

Market outlook:

Overall, manganese ore prices remained firm, continuously raising production costs for factories. Factories were operating at a loss and ee reluctant to sell at low prices, but demand was insufficient, and steel tenders showed a willingness to lower prices. While there were production cuts on the supply side, the overall supply and demand situation remained relatively loose. SunSirs predicts that the silicomanganese market will likely continue its volatile and wait-and-see trend in the short term.

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