Global supply and demand dynamics are being reshaped, with LNG poised to become the key hub connecting traditional and future energy systems. This was stated by Zhang Chuanjiang, Party Secretary and Chairman of CNOOC, at the 2025 Marine Energy Development Forum held on December 5.

Hosted by CNOOC Group's Energy Economics Research Institute, the forum released three major reports: China Marine Energy Development Report 2025, China LNG Development Report 2025, and Energy Outlook 2060 (2025 Edition). These documents reviewed the development of the global and Chinese natural gas and LNG industries, provided short-term assessments, and offered medium-to-long-term outlooks.

The China LNG Development Report 2025 indicates that China's natural gas market will achieve basic supply-demand equilibrium by 2025, with natural gas prices experiencing significant growth. By 2025, global natural gas production is projected to reach 4.19 trillion cubic meters, representing a 1.6% year-on-year increase, with North America and the Middle East driving global production growth. Global natural gas consumption is projected to reach 41.8 trillion cubic meters, an increase of 53 billion cubic meters or 1.28% year-on-year. This growth rate will slow significantly from 2.8% in 2024, with North America, Asia-Pacific, the CIS, the Middle East, and Europe remaining the primary consumption regions. Global LNG trade volume will reach 434 million tons, growing by 6.4%. The United States will drive rapid expansion in global LNG supply capacity, adding 11.08 million tons/year of new liquefaction capacity in 2025—accounting for 78% of the global increase. Europe will lead global LNG demand growth, with LNG imports reaching 128 million tons in 2025, a substantial year-on-year increase of approximately 28 million tons. With the global LNG market tightening slightly by 2025, the annual average spot prices for Europe's TTF and Northeast Asia's JKM will rise year-on-year, with Northeast Asia's LNG spot average price reaching approximately $12.4 per million British thermal units (MMBtu).

China's natural gas market operates stably with ample resource supply, though gas consumption growth has slowed significantly. In 2025, annual natural gas production is projected to reach 261.5 billion cubic meters, a 6.1% year-on-year increase, with growth primarily driven by the Sichuan Basin, Tarim Basin, Ordos Basin, and offshore gas fields. Import volumes are expected to decline by 4.3% year-on-year to 174 billion cubic meters, reducing the external dependency ratio to 40.2%. Natural gas demand is projected to grow steadily. Constrained by factors such as sluggish gas demand from real estate-related industries and relatively high international natural gas prices, consumption is expected to reach 433 billion cubic meters in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. Regarding LNG, domestic LNG production will maintain its growth momentum. China's domestic LNG supply is projected to reach approximately 30.35 million tons in 2025, while imported LNG bulk supply is expected to be around 13 million tons. LNG consumption is projected to reach 43.35 million tons, a 4% year-on-year increase, with transportation accounting for half of this consumption.

The China Marine Energy Development Report 2025 makes the following projections for the 2026 natural gas market: In 2026, the global natural gas market will enter a period of restructuring. Against the backdrop of steady growth in production and demand alongside large-scale expansion of LNG production capacity, regional supply-demand patterns will diverge. Global natural gas production and consumption are projected to reach 42.6 trillion cubic meters and 42.5 trillion cubic meters respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 1.6% and 1.7%. Global LNG imports are expected to rise to approximately 480 million tons, with a growth rate of 10%. The average spot prices for TTF in Europe and Northeast Asia LNG will hover around $10.5 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), while the HH spot price in the United States will rise above $4.0 per mmBtu.

In 2026, China's natural gas supply and demand will maintain rapid growth momentum. Annual natural gas production is projected to reach 274.5 billion cubic meters, a 5% year-on-year increase. Pipeline gas imports will grow steadily, while LNG imports will rebound from decline. Natural gas consumption will rise steadily to approximately 457 billion cubic meters, marking a 5.5% year-on-year increase.

The 2060 Energy Outlook (2025 Edition) provides insights into the medium-to-long-term trends of natural gas development. Global natural gas production is projected to peak around 2035 at approximately 47 trillion cubic meters, comprising conventional gas production of about 32 trillion cubic meters and unconventional gas production of about 15 trillion cubic meters. The United States and Russia, the world's two largest natural gas producers, are expected to account for approximately 23% and 18% of global production, respectively, by 2035. Global natural gas consumption is projected to peak between 2040 and 2045, maintaining a prolonged plateau at approximately 4.6 trillion cubic meters. Subsequently, driven by rising electrification rates and hydrogen-based fuel substitution, consumption will gradually decline, falling to 3.4 trillion cubic meters by 2060. Consumption in North America and Europe will continue to decrease, while the Middle East, Eurasia, and Asia-Pacific regions

China's natural gas production is projected to grow rapidly during the outlook period, approaching a peak of approximately 360 billion cubic meters by 2040. Subsequently, due to factors such as shrinking end-use demand and increasing extraction difficulties, production is expected to decline to 260 billion cubic meters by 2060. China's natural gas consumption is projected to peak between 2035 and 2040 at approximately 650 billion cubic meters. Subsequently, influenced by rising electrification rates and hydrogen-based fuel substitution, consumption will decline steadily, reaching around 430 billion cubic meters by 2060.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on December 15th, the benchmark price for liquefied natural gas (LNG) according to SunSirs was 3776.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 7.31% compared to the beginning of the month (4074.00 RMB/ton).

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