Price trend:

According to SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System: In November 2025, the domestic 1# lead ingot market saw a slight increase. The average domestic market price was 16,780 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 16,850 RMB/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.42%.

On November 30th, SunSirs Lead Index was 103.80 points, unchanged from the previous day. It was down 22.54% from the cycle high of 134.01 points (November 29, 2016) and up 39.09% from the cycle low of 74.63 points (March 19, 2015). (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to the present.)

In early November, lead prices continued the weak and volatile trend of October, fluctuating within a range. In mid-November, influenced by improved macroeconomic sentiment and a recovery in downstream procurement, lead prices rebounded slightly, with spot prices exceeding 17,500 RMB/ton at their highest point. In late November, lead prices came under pressure again, falling briefly due to increased supply and weak demand, before stabilizing.

Market Analysis

Supply side

In the primary lead sector, smelters in Central and Northern China had completed their maintenance work, resulting in a month-on-month increase in output. However, the supply of lead concentrate was tight, and processing fees remained low, which to some extent restricted the potential for increased production.

Regarding recycled lead, production capacity was gradually recovering, but the supply of waste batteries was relatively tight. In addition, the combined effects of environmental protection policies had limited the growth of recycled lead production.

Demand side

The market demand for lead-acid batteries exhibited differentiated characteristics: orders in the energy storage battery sector had maintained steady growth; demand for automotive starting batteries had also remained stable; however, the replacement market for electric bicycle batteries was weak. Furthermore, high lead prices dampened downstream purchasing intentions. On the export front, due to adjustments in overseas tariffs and anti-dumping measures, lead-acid battery exports had continued to decline, offering limited support for lead prices.

Inventory side

Global visible inventories of lead ingots had decreased slightly, while domestic social inventories had increased. However, overall inventory levels remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years, providing some floor support for prices.

Market Forecast:

Lead prices are likely to remain range-bound. Due to rising supply, weak demand, and uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment, lead prices still faced some downward pressure. However, low inventory levels, coupled with cost support, will limit the extent of the price decline.

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