Price trend:

According to the commodity price analysis system of SunSirs, the price of lithium carbonate fluctuated recently due to the combined effects of supply disruptions and resilient demand. As of December 8th, the benchmark price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 92,500 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.94% compared to the same period last week (December 1st), a month-on-month increase of 16.7%, and a year-on-year increase of 14.24%. The benchmark price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 90,800 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.84% compared to the same period last week, a month-on-month increase of 17.15%, and a year-on-year increase of 15.86%.

Supply side: Disruptive factors persisted, and lithium ore was in a shortage

The Jianxiawo mine in Ningde has been shut down for three months, and the December 5th restart date that was circulating in market rumors had passed, meaning the expected resumption of production has failed to materialize. Several traders in the Yichun area have indicated that the supply and demand for local lepidolite ore are also slowly changing, with supply unable to keep up with demand.

Overseas supply was showing signs of contraction

In October 2025, China imported 652,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a decrease of 8.3% compared to the previous month. Imports from Australia decreased by 15% month-on-month, while imports from Zimbabwe reached 150,000 tons (a 41% increase month-on-month), and imports from Nigeria remained stable at 120,000 tons. Lithium carbonate imports in October reached 23,881 tons, a 21.9% increase month-on-month, with 14,800 tons (62% of the total) coming from Chile.

Demand side: Downstream demand remained strong, with both production and sales increasing

In October, China's total production of power and other batteries reached 170.6 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 12.9% and a year-on-year increase of 50.5%; total exports reached 28.2 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 5.5% and a year-on-year increase of 33.5%; and sales reached 166.0 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 13.3% and a year-on-year increase of 50.8%. All indicators showed an upward trend.

Inventory side: The inventory reduction trend continued, but the pace may slow down

Lithium carbonate inventories continued to decline, with social inventories falling for 13 consecutive weeks and a reduction of 20,000 tons in November alone. However, new energy vehicle sales are expected to decline slightly in December compared to the previous month, and the production of battery cells and cathode materials is also expected to decrease slightly month-on-month in December. Therefore, lithium carbonate inventories are expected to continue to decline in December, but at a slower pace than in November.

Market Forecast:

According to data analysts at SunSirs, the lithium carbonate market is temporarily in a state of tight supply and demand balance. Supply-side disruptions persisted, while demand remained strong. Multiple factors are driving price fluctuations, and further developments regarding the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine and overall market changes need to be monitored.

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