Major industry organizations in India have stated that sugar production for the first two months of the 2025/2026 crushing season (starting on October 1st) increased by 43% year-on-year, mainly due to higher sugar production rates and faster crushing speeds in major sugar producing states.

India's sugar production in the first two months of the 2025/2026 crushing season increased by 43% year-on-year, mainly due to an increase in sugar yield and faster pressing speed, resulting in a significant increase in supply and significant downward pressure on the spot price of white sugar, which may lead to oversupply in the spot market. Based on the data of sugar futures (such as the closing price of contract 2601 at 5,382 RMB/ton, down 14 RMB/ton; the closing price of contract 2605 at 5,316 RMB/ton, down 11 RMB/ton), the recent general decline in contracts and little change in holdings indicate that the market is increasingly concerned about supply. This news will strengthen the downward trend of futures prices and intensify bearish sentiment. Based on comprehensive evaluation, the surge in production is a significant bearish factor, and it is expected that both spot and futures prices will be under pressure to decline.

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