In 2018, the United States launched a “232 investigation” into steel and aluminum, and imposed a 10% tariff on imported aluminum. Subsequently, the United States gradually implemented and expanded the scope of tariff exclusions. However, on March 12, the United States increased the tariff on imported aluminum products to 25%, and removed the exclusions for traditional allies such as Canada and Mexico. On June 3, the United States increased the tariff on aluminum and aluminum derivatives from 25% to 50%, and the new rate took effect from June 4. On August 15, the Department of Commerce further expanded the scope of taxation, including aluminum derivatives such as household appliances, mechanical parts, furniture, etc. in the tariff list.

After the tariff policy was implemented, the price of aluminum products in the United States was significantly higher than the international market. However, the high price also suppressed domestic aluminum demand, leading to a decrease in imports and disrupting the trade rhythm of aluminum products with the United States as the main export destination.

Data show that in August 2025, the United States imported 74,000 tons of primary aluminum, a decrease of 83,000 tons compared to the same period last year; from January to August, the United States imported a total of 1.221 million tons of primary aluminum, a decrease of 244,000 tons year-on-year, indicating that tariffs have significantly suppressed import demand. In terms of aluminum alloys, from January to August, the United States imported a total of 146,000 tons, a slight increase compared to the previous month, and only slightly decreased compared to the same period last year, indicating a lighter impact.

In terms of aluminum and aluminum products, in August 2025, the United States imported 191,000 tons of net aluminum processing materials, aluminum wires and cables, and aluminum furniture; from April to August, the monthly net import volume was 202,000 tons, down by 28,000 tons from the 230,000 tons in January to March, and also lower than the monthly average of 258,000 tons in 2024, reflecting the suppression of imports by the tariff increase.

Waste aluminum was not included in the tariff list, so the US aluminum tariff instead stimulated the import of waste aluminum. In August 2025, the US imported 71,000 tons of waste aluminum; from January to August, the cumulative import was 569,000 tons, an increase of 138,000 tons compared to the same period in 2024. During the same period, the US exported 1.411 million tons of waste aluminum, an increase of 66,000 tons year-on-year. From January to August, the net import of waste aluminum in the US increased by about 72,000 tons.

Based on the above import and export data of products, it is estimated that from January to August, the supply of aluminum elements in the United States ( primary aluminum + aluminum products + aluminum alloys + scrap aluminum ) decreased by about 400,000 to 500,000 tons. Data from the US Geological Survey show that in the second quarter of this year, US aluminum consumption only decreased slightly compared to the previous quarter. It can be seen that the US aluminum tariff not only suppresses its own demand but also accelerates the consumption of inventory.

Since the end of October, the premium for aluminum spot in the central and eastern United States has increased significantly again, reflecting the persistent consumption of inventories leading to tightening supplies. The increase in the premium has further widened the price gap between the U.S. and the international market, which will help stimulate the import of aluminum products to stabilize and recover.

The main countries of origin for US imports of primary aluminum include Canada, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates. In 2024, Canada accounted for 78% of US primary aluminum imports, while South Africa and the United Arab Emirates accounted for 7% and 5%, respectively. The impact of tariffs on Canadian exports to the US was the most significant.

Data show that in 2024, Canada's exports of primary aluminum totaled about 1.828 million tons, with the majority going to the United States, and only about 34,000 tons to non-U.S. countries. In the first 8 months of 2025, Canada's exports of primary aluminum dropped to 971,000 tons, a decrease of 277,000 tons year-on-year. Among them, exports to the United States decreased by about 432,000 tons, while exports to non-U.S. regions (mainly European countries such as Italy and the Netherlands) increased by about 152,000 tons. Overall, due to the impact of U.S. tariffs, there has been a build-up of aluminum inventory in Canada, and to alleviate the decline in exports to the United States, Canada has increased its exports to Europe and other places, resulting in an increase in the supply of primary aluminum outside the United States (over 1.5 million tons in the first 8 months).

As tariffs led to a reduction in US imports and a shift of Canadian demand to non-US markets, overseas primary aluminum inventories did not rise. From early April to the end of August, the explicit aluminum inventories overseas (including LME, LME non-warranted, COMEX, and Japanese port inventories) fell from 1.14 million tons to around 1.06 million tons, indicating that the growth in consumption in non-US regions effectively offset the contraction in US demand.

Looking ahead, the drawdown of US primary aluminum inventories has supported the premium structure, making US exports once again attractive. Primary aluminum from Canada and other non-US regions is expected to flow back into the US, reversing the trade pattern seen in April to August. Additionally, with global consumption set to grow and limited new capacity additions, the supply-demand balance for primary aluminum outside the US is expected to remain tight in the near term, providing robust support to global aluminum prices.

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