Price trend:

According to data monitored by SunSirs, copper prices fluctuated widely in a "W" shape in November. At the beginning of the month, the price of copper was 87,595 RMB/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of copper fell to 86,715 RMB/ton, with an overall decrease of 1%, but an increase of 17.36% year-on-year.

According to data from SunSirs, spot copper prices in November were mostly higher than futures prices. The main contract represents the expected price two months later, suggesting that copper prices are likely to remain weak overall.

Market Analysis

According to LME inventory data, LME copper inventories rose slightly in November. At the end of the month, LME copper inventories stood at 156,575 tons, a 17.2% increase from the beginning of the month.

On the macro front: On November 21, New York Fed President Williams made dovish remarks, causing the market's probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December to surge from about 40% at the beginning of the month to 82.9%. The expectation of a rate cut led to a weaker dollar, boosting dollar-denominated copper prices.

On the supply side: Production at major global copper mines such as Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa in the Democratic Republic of Congo continued to be disrupted. Copper concentrate processing fees (TC/RC) were at historically low levels, some smelters were facing losses, and China has suspended 2 million tons of new smelting capacity.

Downstream: Traditional demand was weak: Copper demand from sectors such as construction and real estate, and home appliances remained sluggish. Emerging demand was strong: Copper consumption was increasing in sectors such as power infrastructure, new energy vehicles, and AI data centers, effectively offsetting demand.

According to the annual price comparison chart from SunSirs, copper prices in December have generally fluctuated widely over the past five years, with no significant increases or decreases.

Market Forecast:

In summary, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) predicts that the global copper supply-demand gap will widen from 150,000 tons in 2025 to 300,000 tons in 2026. Some institutions predict that LME copper prices may reach $13,000/ton by 2026, and Shanghai copper prices may exceed 100,000 RMB/ton. The future policy path of the Federal Reserve remains uncertain. Persistently high copper prices will exacerbate cost pressures on downstream enterprises. Copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate widely in December.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.