According to Sina Finance, palm oil futures have fallen for four consecutive days, with the main contract 2601 breaking down and dropping over 1% intraday. Overseas, BMD palm oil retreated to around 4,000 points, down over 10% from its October peak. Domestically, palm oil led the decline among oilseed varieties, with pessimistic sentiment yet to fully dissipate, suggesting short-term participation.

Weak export data signals declining demand, weighing on near-term palm oil prices.

Data shows Malaysian palm oil exports from November 1-20 fell 14.1%-20.5% month-on-month, driven by sluggish purchases from major consumers like India and China. Additionally, the palm oil market grapples with how to absorb current high supply levels.

Malaysian palm oil production increased month-on-month in the first half of November, signaling heightened inventory pressure at production sites. Indonesia's Ministry of Agriculture plans to expand palm oil plantations by 600,000 hectares, with 400,000 hectares allocated to smallholders and the remainder to state-owned enterprises. Palm oil production is entering its seasonal decline period, with weather conditions potentially impacting future output. Prices may find support amid adverse weather. Weather forecasts indicate Malaysia's rainy season has arrived, bringing increased precipitation to production areas. Malaysia's National Disaster Management Agency reports that over 11,000 people across seven states have been affected by floods triggered by heavy rains. Regarding inventories, data shows total inventories of the three major oils rose slightly by 0.1 million tons to 2.224 million tons last week, as palm oil inventory increases offset declines in rapeseed oil stocks.

In summary, factors such as weakening exports, sustained high supply, and rising domestic palm oil inventories in China are weighing on futures prices. Market participants should monitor actual production changes going forward.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on November 26, the benchmark price of palm oil on SunSirs was 8,392.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 4.83% compared with the beginning of the month (8,818.00 RMB/ton).

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