Macroeconomics

1. [PPI] National Bureau of Statistics: In December 2025, the national producer price index (PPI) decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, a narrower decline of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month; it increased by 0.2% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. The producer purchasing price index decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, a narrower decline of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month; it increased by 0.4% month-on-month, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. For the whole year of 2025, the producer price index decreased by 2.6%, and the producer purchasing price index decreased by 3.0%.

2. [CPI] National Bureau of Statistics: In December 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year and by 0.2% month-on-month. For the whole year of 2025, the national consumer price index remained unchanged compared to the previous year.

3. [US Interest Rates] US Treasury Secretary Besant explicitly stated his desire to lower interest rates, calling them a key factor driving future economic growth. Federal Reserve Governor Milan said he expects interest rate cuts of approximately 150 basis points in 2026. This move is expected to create approximately one million jobs without triggering inflation.

4. [US Initial Jobless Claims] US initial jobless claims last week totaled 208,000, compared to an estimated 210,000 and a previous figure of 199,000.

Agriculture Products

1. [Grain] According to the Ministry of Water Resources, as of now, the national irrigated area of ​​cultivated land has exceeded 1.09 billion mu, an increase of more than 53 million mu compared to the end of 2020.  In 2025, the irrigated area of ​​cultivated land accounted for 80.76% of the total national grain production. At the same time, agricultural water use efficiency and effectiveness continued to improve.

2. [Soybeans] The Agricultural Export Center under the Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that in the first 11 months of 2025, Russia's total agricultural exports to China reached US$6.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14%. Therefore, China will remain the largest buyer of Russian food in 2025. In the first 11 months of 2025, China remained the largest importer of the following Russian agricultural products: rapeseed oil, soybeans, flaxseed, oats, buckwheat, poultry meat, beef, and frozen fish and crustaceans.

3. [Soybeans] ANEC stated that due to increased competition from the United States, Brazil's soybean exports to China are expected to decrease by 10 million tons year-on-year in 2026.  Brazilian soybean exports to China will fall to 77 million tons in 2026, a decrease of approximately 10 million tons compared to 87 million tons in 2025.

4. [Soybeans] ANEC expects Brazil's soybean exports to still reach a record 112 million tons in 2026. In comparison, Brazilian soybean exports reached approximately 109 million tons in 2025.

5. [Corn] Statistical data released by Secex shows that Brazilian corn exports in December 2025 continued to outpace the same period last year. From December 1st to 31st, Brazilian corn exports totaled 6.128 million tons, compared to 4.266 million tons in December of the previous year.

6. [Soybean Meal] Data released by the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX) shows that Brazilian soybean meal exports so far in December are ahead of the same period last year. Soybean meal exports from December 1st to 31st totaled 2.111 million tons, compared to 2.052 million tons in December of the previous year. 7. [Palm Oil] Market rumors suggest that Indonesia, the world's largest palm oil producer, may increase its crude palm oil export tax from 10% to 15% to provide additional subsidies for the implementation of the B50 project.

8. [Palm Oil] A report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture attaché indicates that due to the Indonesian government's confiscation of palm oil plantations since the beginning of 2025, production from these plantations will decline.  Therefore, the attaché has lowered the 2025/26 Indonesian palm oil production estimate to 46.7 million tons.

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