Price trend:

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, from November 17th to 21st (as of 15:00), the price of methanol at East China ports in China fell from 2,020 RMB/ton to around 1,995 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.24% during the period, a decrease of 11.92% month-on-month, and a decrease of 21.76% year-on-year. Affected by factors such as the return of cargo to ports, the methanol inventory at ports decreased slightly, but the high inventory continued to suppress the market, and the methanol market at ports is unlikely to improve, continuing its downward trend.

As of the close of trading on November 21, methanol futures prices on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell. The most active methanol futures contract, 2601, opened at 2,016 RMB/ton, reached a high of 2,029 RMB/ton, a low of 2,001 RMB/ton, and closed at 2,004 RMB/ton, down 7 RMB/ton or 0.35% from the previous trading day's settlement price. Trading volume was 1,085,596 lots, open interest was 1,402,474 lots, and open interest decreased by 25,359 lots.

Market Analysis

On the cost side, coal inventories remained at normal levels, with purchases mainly driven by immediate needs, and prices continued to hold firm, providing strong cost support. Methanol is also benefiting from favorable cost factors.

On the demand side, inland olefins continued to be sourced from external suppliers, with downstream users mostly maintaining just-in-time purchases and lacking the willingness to actively stockpile, resulting in insufficient positive factors. Most downstream products were affected by methanol prices, getting a generally negative impact from methanol demand.

On the supply side, Jiexiu Changsheng and Xianyang Petroleum plants were undergoing maintenance; Anhui Haoyuan and Inner Mongolia Heimao plants were reducing production; Zhejiang Juhua and Guotai Xinhua plants were resuming operations. With fewer plants scheduled for maintenance or production cuts and more plants resuming operations, the overall market supply may increase. Methanol supply was generally bearish for the market.

On the international market, as of the close of trading on November 20, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at $316.5-317.5/ton; the FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 88.5-89.5 cents/gallon; and the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at €259.5-260.5/ton.

Market Forecast:

Overall profitability across the upstream and downstream supply chains was weak, with no significant signs of supply contraction. In the absence of substantial positive factors, analysts at SunSirs predict that the domestic methanol spot market will continue to be weaker.

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