Last week (November 17-23), international oil prices fell. WTI crude futures closed at $58.06 per barrel, marking a weekly decline of 3.38%. Brent crude futures closed at $62.56 per barrel, with a weekly drop of 2.84%.

On the macro front, Axios News released the full draft of the Trump administration's 28-point plan to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the 20th. Key points include Russia signing non-aggression pacts with Ukraine and Europe, while Ukraine pledges not to join NATO. Under this plan, once agreements are reached, both sides would withdraw to designated locations and immediately cease hostilities; Ukraine would hold elections within 100 days; and implementation would be overseen by a peace council led by U.S. President Trump.

On the supply front, OPEC's November Monthly Report indicates that due to higher-than-expected U.S. production and increased supply from the organization itself, OPEC revised its third-quarter global oil market outlook from a supply shortage to a surplus. According to EIA data, for the week ending November 14, U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.834 million barrels per day (bpd), down 28,000 bpd from the previous week but up 633,000 bpd year-over-year.

On the demand side, EIA data showed that for the week ending November 14, total U.S. oil demand averaged 20.157 million barrels per day, down 613,000 barrels per day from the previous week. U.S. gasoline demand averaged 8.528 million barrels per day, down 500,000 barrels per day from the prior week.

Regarding inventories, the EIA inventory report indicated that U.S. crude oil stocks declined due to increased exports and refining demand. For the week ending November 14, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.426 million barrels from the previous week to 424.16 million barrels. Looking ahead, international oil prices face near-term pressure from tariff policies and OPEC+ production increases. However, geopolitical risk premiums, OPEC+ intervention capabilities, and resilient global demand are expected to support price floors. Meanwhile, macroeconomic uncertainties may amplify oil price volatility. This week, NYMEX natural gas futures closed at $4.58/mmbtu, with a weekly gain of 0.22%. The EIA weekly natural gas inventory report shows that as of November 14, total U.S. natural gas inventories stood at 39.46 trillion cubic feet, down 14 billion cubic feet from the previous week and 23 billion cubic feet below the same period last year, representing a 0.6% decrease. Inventories remain 1.46 trillion cubic feet above the five-year average, an increase of 3.8%.

Looking ahead, in the short term, declining overseas natural gas inventories are tightening supply-demand dynamics. In the medium term, Europe's energy supply structure remains vulnerable, with geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand fluctuations potentially triggering significant volatility in natural gas prices.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on November 25, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil on SunSirs was $58.06 per barrel, a decrease of 4.14% compared with the beginning of the month ($60.57 per barrel).

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