According to Sina Finance, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's electrolytic aluminum industry achieved steady growth by leveraging favorable factors such as supply-side structural optimization and the development of a dual-circulation economic system. The supply landscape continued to improve, while emerging demand sectors expanded steadily. Entering the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the focus will shift to enhancing the global competitiveness of the mineral and metallurgical industries and cultivating emerging sectors. The electrolytic aluminum industry is poised for comprehensive upgrading through coordinated innovation on the supply side and a shift in demand drivers, embarking on a new journey of value reformation.
The supply side exhibits coordinated innovation in resources, clusters, technology, and layout. To address the current 70% reliance on imported bauxite, leading enterprises like Chinalco and Hongqiao Group are accelerating the development of overseas resource bases in Guinea, Indonesia, and elsewhere, shifting resource utilization from “passive dependence” to “active deployment.” Regarding industrial clusters, the CR10 capacity concentration has reached 70%. Leading companies are extending downstream operations, boosting local conversion rates of molten aluminum while reducing primary processing industries. Advanced aluminum processing clusters are gradually forming. Technologically, large electrolytic cells above 500KA account for over 45% of capacity, with green electricity usage nearing 30%. Enterprises like Yunnan Aluminum and Hongqiao Group are advancing digital and intelligent transformation, making green and smart development the mainstream. In terms of layout, capacity continues shifting toward clean energy-rich regions in Southwest and Northwest China, optimizing regional distribution.
Demand is driven by dual forces: new productive forces and consumption stimulus. While traditional real estate demand declines, new growth engines like new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, low-altitude economy, and AI computing emerge as core drivers, aligning with national economic priorities. Simultaneously, policy initiatives are implementing targeted actions to boost consumption. By stabilizing employment and increasing incomes, these measures enhance residents' consumption capacity, providing comprehensive support for aluminum end-use consumption and injecting sustained momentum into demand growth.
Overall, the primary aluminum market will maintain sound operations with ongoing value re-evaluation. On the supply side, incremental capacity expansion is limited, aluminum ingot circulation resources are decreasing, and the processing industry faces restructuring. On the demand side, stable growth and expanding consumption scenarios are tilting the supply-demand balance, driving the price center upward. However, attention should be paid to import pressures from overseas capacity expansions, such as those planned in Indonesia, as well as the long-term impact of recycled aluminum substitution.
In summary, supported by the 15th Five-Year Plan, the industry's defined supply ceiling and sustained demand growth will jointly propel the electrolytic aluminum sector toward high-quality development, with a clear and promising path to value re-establishment.
As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on November 18, the benchmark price of aluminum on SunSirs was 21,920.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.94% compared with the beginning of the month (21,293.33 RMB/ton).
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