At present, the domestic methanol demand side is showing weakness. Affected by this, the domestic inventory build-up pressure is increasing. The problem of tight tank capacity is becoming increasingly prominent, further exacerbating the downward pressure on the market.

With the end of the China-US economic and trade negotiations, the expectations of positive macroeconomic impact have been realized, the macro driving force has weakened, and the methanol futures market has once again returned to a situation dominated by the supply and demand fundamentals. Currently, the domestic methanol market is in a state of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". Against the backdrop of the imbalance in supply and demand, the recent methanol futures contract 2601 has shown a weak downward trend, with the price focus returning to the 2100 RMB/ton level. The price difference of the methanol contract from 1 to 5 months has widened to 110 RMB/ton, and the weak characteristics of the nearby contract have become prominent.

Production capacity is steadily increasing.

At present, the supply pressure of domestic methanol market is still high, which is mainly reflected in the continuous expansion of production capacity, the maintenance of high production rate and the strong import volume. In 2024, China's methanol production capacity has reached 112.55 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%; the output has increased to 91.822 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%. This growth trend did not slow down in 2025, but accelerated instead. According to statistics, as of November 7, 2025, the average production rate of domestic methanol maintained at 84.63%, a slight increase of 4.25% month-on-month and a slight increase of 2.35% year-on-year; the weekly production average of methanol reached 1.9921 million tons, a significant increase of 96,300 tons year-on-year.

Import levels remain high

The high import volume has further exacerbated the supply pressure in the domestic market. According to statistics, in September 2025, China's import scale of methanol dropped to 1.4269 million tons, a significant decrease of 332,900 tons compared to the previous month, but it increased significantly by 178,100 tons year-on-year. Although the import arrival volume decreased slightly in October due to the temporary shutdown of some Iranian equipment, the overall supply is expected to be relatively sufficient. In addition, the gas supply reduction period in Iran's winter may be later than expected, which means that the recovery time for its equipment to resume production is longer, further ensuring the export supply. Against the backdrop of stable international supply, China's import arrival volume remains at a high level, and port stocks continue to accumulate.

The pressure of inventory accumulation increases

At present, the domestic methanol demand side is showing a sluggish performance. As the largest consumer of methanol, the methanol-to-olefins (MTO) faced the risk of a decline in the utilization rate in November. The demand from traditional downstream industries is also sluggish. As the second largest traditional demand, the production load of formaldehyde has been maintained at around 30% for a long time. The production load of industries such as dimethyl ether, DMF, and methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) has not changed much, and the overall pull on the market is weak. In addition, other application fields such as methanol fuel and MTBE have also shown a sluggish performance due to seasonal factors and economic environment, and the overall demand shows a "weak recovery" trend. Affected by this, the domestic inventory pressure has increased. According to statistics, as of November 7, the methanol inventory at ports in East China and South China maintained at 1.2861 million tons, a significant increase of 251,800 tons year-on-year. Currently, the inventory issue in the domestic methanol market has become a key factor restricting the rebound of prices, especially the continuous rise in inventory at coastal ports, which has reached a historical super high level. The problem of tight tank capacity is increasingly prominent, further exacerbating the downward pressure on the market.

Overall, the current domestic methanol production capacity is expanding steadily, with the weekly production rate and output maintaining a high level, while the pressure of external imports continues to increase. However, the downstream demand is weak, making it difficult to digest the increased supply, resulting in the methanol inventories in ports and inland areas continuing to accumulate. In the context of the imbalance between supply and demand, it is expected that the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 will continue to show a weak and consolidating trend in the future.

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