Recently (11.1-11.13), the BR market has been weak and declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of November 13, the BR market price in East China was 10,650 RMB/ton, a decrease of 4.48% from 11,150 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 1.91% from the low point of 10,450 RMB/ton during the cycle. On the one hand, the price of raw material butadiene is weak and declining, causing a significant shift in the cost center of BR; Part of the pre maintenance equipment has restarted operation, and the production of BR has slightly increased, resulting in a slight increase in supply pressure; On the other hand, downstream tire production has slightly rebounded, providing support for the demand for BR, but resisting high priced sources. The basic operation of BR is weak. As of November 13th, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze BR in East China were 10,500-10,850 RMB/ton.

Recently (11.1-11.13), international crude oil prices have weakened again, domestic butadiene prices have weakened, and the cost support for BR has weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of November 13th, the price of butadiene was 7,000 RMB/ton, a decrease of 6.87% from 7,516 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.

Recently (11.1-11.13), the start-up of domestic BR units has slightly increased to around 70%, and BR units such as Qilu Petrochemical, Sichuan Petrochemical, and Yangtze Petrochemical have restarted feeding. In addition, the current Zhenhua BR unit is undergoing maintenance, and there are still some units planned to be shut down for maintenance in the future. The pressure on the supply side of BR will be slightly relieved in the later stage.

Demand side: Recently (11.1-11.13), there has been a slight increase in downstream tire production, providing strong support for the demand in the BR market. As of November 7th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has slightly increased to around 74%; The production of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong Province has slightly decreased to around 65%.

From a fundamental perspective, analysts from SunSirs believe that some units of BR will be scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and international crude oil will weaken again. The drag pressure on the cost of BR still exists, and downstream tires will maintain rigid demand to support new demand. Overall, it is expected that BR will experience weak fluctuations in the short term.

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