Price trend:

According to the SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, from November 3rd to 7th (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market price at East China ports fell from 2,102 RMB/ton to around 2,095 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.33% during the period, a decrease of 6.37% month-on-month, and a decrease of 16.17% year-on-year. The domestic methanol market remained weak, with high port inventory persisting and high supply pressure driving further declines in port methanol prices. Inland methanol prices continued to decline, with the supply and demand situation remaining weak. The sharp decline in futures prices, coupled with the continued outflow of goods from ports, significantly impacted market sentiment.

As of the close of trading on November 7, methanol futures prices on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell. The most active methanol futures contract, 2601, opened at 2,122 RMB/ton, reached a high of 2,132 RMB/ton, a low of 2,106 RMB/ton, and closed at 2,112 RMB/ton, down 4 RMB/ton or 0.19% from the previous trading day's settlement price. Trading volume was 915,796 lots, open interest was 1,390,819 lots, an increase of 22,489 lots.

Analysis review

On the cost side, coal inventories decreased significantly, while winter stockpiling continued, leaving room for price increases and strengthening cost support. The cost side of Methanol provided  favorable factors for the market. 

On the demand side, external olefin procurement provided support, and overall demand from traditional downstream industries is expected to rebound, but the increase in demand is limited. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, resulting in a generally bearish impact from methanol demand.

On the supply side, Jiutai New Materials and Hubei Saning's plants were undergoing maintenance; Zhongmei Yuanxing, Inner Mongolia Donghua, Jineng Technology, Yunnan Yuntianhua, Shanxi Tianze, and Guangju New Materials' plants had resumed operations. Overall, the recovery volume exceeded the loss volume, hence the increase in capacity utilization. The methanol supply sideproided slightly bearish factors.

On the international market, as of the close of trading on November 6, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at $322.5-323.5 per ton. The FOB US Gulf Coast methanol market closed at 89.5-90.5 cents per gallon; and the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at €271.5-272.5 per ton.

Market Forecast:

With high domestic supply, high port inventories, and sluggish downstream demand, analysts at SunSirs predict that the domestic methanol spot market will br weaker.

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