Price trend:

According to data from the SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, the toluene market experienced a volatile decline in October 2025. From October 1st to 31st, the domestic toluene market price fell from 5,330 RMB/ton to 5,150 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.38% during the period.

Early October: The domestic toluene market fluctuated downwards after the holiday. Major refineries in Shandong province lowered their ex-factory prices to actively ship products, while downstream chemical and oil blending industries maintained relatively stable demand, with purchases primarily driven by immediate needs. Prices in East China declined, and downstream activity was weak. The South China market was affected by weakening crude oil prices, resulting in a weak and volatile trend.

Late October: The domestic toluene market fluctuated during this period, trending downwards overall. Major refineries in Shandong province slightly lowered their ex-factory prices, with downstream purchases remaining primarily driven by immediate needs. Prices in East and South China markets also declined slightly, with downstream activity remaining weak. Overall, the toluene market remained stable to slightly weak.

Analysis review

Cost Side:

According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, the crude oil market experienced a decline followed by a rise this cycle. In the first ten days of the month, the crude oil market was affected by negative factors. On the one hand, OPEC+ had initiated a new round of production increases of 1.65 million barrels per day, and the market remained concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply, leading to a continued decline in crude oil prices. On the other hand, the easing of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, coupled with weakening US demand, and the dragging down of global economic and demand expectations by US tariffs, along with increased US crude oil inventories and the end of the peak US oil consumption season, resulted in a pessimistic global economic outlook and oil demand, causing a rapid decline in international oil prices. In the latter part of the month, OPEC+ initiated a new round of production increases of 1.65 million barrels per day, and the market remained concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply. The easing of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, coupled with weakening US demand, and the dragging down of global economic and demand expectations by US tariffs, led to a rapid decline in international oil prices. However, later in the month, as the US and Europe continued their sanctions against some oil-producing countries, and concerns about the negative pressure from US tariffs and trade disputes eased, the crude oil market trended upward. As of the 29th, the settlement price of the December contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $60.48 per barrel. The settlement price of the December contract for Brent crude oil futures was $64.92 per barrel.

Supply side:

Sinopec's toluene plants were operating normally, with stable production. Most of the product was for internal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of October 31st, the price quoted by the East China plant was 5,150 RMB/ton, the North China plant was 5,000-5,050 RMB/ton, the South China plant was 5,400-5,500 RMB/ton, and the Central China plant was 5,150 RMB/ton.

Demand Side:

According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, as of October 31, 2025, Sinopec Sales Company's paraxylene price was 6,700 RMB/ton. This price was applied in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Plants such as Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical were operating stably, with normal sales. The price was 100 RMB/ton lower than on September 29. As of October 30, the closing price of paraxylene in the Asian market was $792-794/ton FOB Korea and $817-819/ton CFR China, a decrease of $4/ton compared to September 28.

Market Forecast:

The crude oil market was recentlyvolatile, offering limited guidance. From a supply and demand perspective, recent market changes were limited, with supply remaining relatively stable. Major refineries slightly lowered their ex-factory prices over the weekend, resulting in a subdued market atmosphere. Demand remained primarily driven by immediate needs, with restocking mainly on an as-needed basis. Overall, the toluene market is expected to stable but weaker in the short term, with recent news being bearish.

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