Price trend:

According to data from the SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, the toluene market fluctuated upwards from November 3rd to November 10th, 2025. The benchmark price for toluene was 5,150 RMB/ton on November 3rd and 5,240 RMB/ton on November 10th, an increase of 1.75%. During this period, the domestic toluene market saw fluctuating increases. Major refineries in Shandong generally raised their ex-factory prices, while demand from downstream chemical and oil blending industries remained relatively stable, with purchases primarily driven by immediate needs. Prices in East and South China markets saw slight increases, and market negotiations were relatively positive. Overall, the toluene market remained stable to slightly stronger this cycle.

Market Analysis

Cost Side:

According to data from the SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, as of November 7th, the settlement price of the December contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $59.75 per barrel. The settlement price of the January contract for Brent crude oil futures was $63.63 per barrel. During this pricing cycle, crude oil prices initially rose and then fell. At the beginning of the cycle, trade negotiations between China and the US boosted market risk appetite, and tensions in South America initially supported rising crude oil prices. However, later, a new round of production increases by OPEC+ raised concerns about long-term oversupply risks. Regional tensions eased somewhat, and weakening US demand, coupled with US tariffs dragging down global economic and demand expectations, led to a decline in international oil prices.

Supply side:

Sinopec's toluene plants were operating normally, with stable production. Most of the product was for internal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of November 10th, the price quoted by the East China branch was 5,300 RMB/ton, the North China branch was 5,100 RMB/ton, the South China branch was 5,300-5,400 RMB/ton, and the Central China branch was 5,0 RMB/ton.

Demand side:

On November 10th, Sinopec Sales Company maintained its paraxylene price at RMB 6,700/ton. This price was applied across East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Plants at Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical were operating stably, and sales ere normal. As of November 7th, the closing price of paraxylene in the Asian market was USD 798-800/ton FOB Korea and USD 823-825/ton CFR China.

Market outlook

The recent slight recovery in the crude oil market improved the sentiment in the spot market. From a supply and demand perspective, the overall market sw limited changes recently, with supply remaining relatively stable. Major refineries generally raised their ex-factory prices, and the overall market sentiment was acceptable, with factories maintaining a strong willingness to hold prices. On the demand side, recent performance had remained primarily driven by immediate needs, with restocking mainly based on immediate needs. Overall, the toluene market has shown a stable to slightly stronger trend recently, and driven by rising crude oil prices, it is expected to maintain this stable to slightly stronger trend in the short term.

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